Market Values for 50 Notable NFL Free Agents

Market Values for 50 Notable NFL Free Agents
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The 2018 NFL Offseason is set to feature a rare sighting: available, experienced quarterbacks. The result should be a very interesting few months, starting with the February 20th franchise tag window opening, into the March 14th free agency season, and on through the April 26th-28th 2018 NFL Draft.

We'll break down notable prospective & potential free agents at each position group, highlighting their previous salary, projected market value, and our thoughts going forward. Keep up with the upcoming chaos @spotrac.

 

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Quarterbacks
Player Team POs Age 2017 AAV Market Value Thoughts
Kirk Cousins WAS QB 29 $23.9M $25.6M Cousins' value rose as high as $29M over the past 2 seasons. If he's allowed to hit the open market he has a fantastic chance to sign the richest contract in NFL history. Cleveland, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Denver, & the New York Jets are all contenders.
Drew Brees NO QB 39 $24.25M $25M Brees has made it clear he has 0 intentions of leaving New Orleans, but his contract will take some creativity. He'll roll $18M in dead over to a new deal, and is still producing at a $25M+ level.
Case Keenum MIN QB 29 $2M $21.1M Keenum's last two weeks have been a rollercoaster, leading to a bit of indecision with his status for 2018. It's still widely believed Keenum will be a franchise tag candidate ($23M+), but the Vikings will still be targeting a QB in this year's draft no matter.
Jimmy Garoppolo SF QB 26 $870,975 $18M

Yes, it's silly to have him here as the 49ers will be slapping a franchise tag on Jimmy minutes into the window. A small sample size and a few too many interceptions keep his total market value at $18M (for now). San Francisco may (should) look to extend him now to buy low(er).

Sam Bradford MIN QB 30 $18M N/A Bradford's knee injuries and 2017 surgery will make finding a starting role & any sort of financial commitment difficult this offseason. An incentive-based deal similar to Josh McCown's 2017 structure with the Jets might be in store (game active, % of snaps, performance, & postseason bonuses with a smaller base salary).

 

 

Running Backs
Player Team POS Age 2017 AAV Market Value Thoughts
Le'Veon Bell PIT RB 25 $12.1M $10.7M Pittsburgh appears poised to slap a second tag on Bell ($14.45M), who has already said he won't accept it this time around. If they two sides can't find a long-term deal by July 15th, this could a huge mid-summer get for a willing and able team. The Browns, Raiders & Colts are strong fits.
Carlos Hyde SF RB 26 $920,420 $5.8M Hyde took a step back in 2017, and his usage was limited in a new SF offense. He's still got the ability to produce in both the run & pass game, but might have trouble finding his near $6M value this offseason.
Dion Lewis NE RB 27 $1.3M $5M Lewis' ability to be effective in both the run and pass game will make him attractive should the Patriots not lock him up before March. He's battled injuries but has just 4 fumbles in 6 seasons, and carries a nice round $5M market value.
Jerick McKinnon MIN RB 25 $691,250 $4M McKinnon's never had a chance to be "the guy" in Minnesota, but his numbers very much resemble Gio Bernard's in Cincy, who scored a $5.1M per year extension. A change of scenery should be financially rewarding.
Rex Burkhead NE RB 27 $3.15M $3.3M Burkhead saw less than 200 regular season snaps in 2017, missing 6 weeks and splitting reps with plenty of other backs in NE. He's shown production in both the run and pass game, and a knack for finding the endzone - both recipes for a nice pay day. It's possible he finds Theo Riddick's near $4M annual.

 

Wide Receivers
Player Team POS Age 2017 AAV Market Value Thoughts
Jarvis Landry MIA WR 25 $868,728 $13.8M The Dolphins may slap a tag on Landry (estimated $16.5M), but appear unwilling to extend him to a $15M+ multi-year contract. His market value says $14M should get the job done.
Allen Robinson JAC WR 24 $877,718 $13.6M Robinson had 150+ catches and 2,200 yards receiving across 2015-16, but is coming off a torn ACL that washed away his contract year. Assuming he's good to go, he'll generate a lot of interest from teams in need of a big presence, across the middle weapon.
Marqise Lee JAC WR 26 $1.3M $7.5M Lee's had back to back strong seasons with the Jags, and heads to the offseason with his eyes set on Robert Woods ($7M) & Marvin Jones ($8M) money. Jacksonville will likely keep he or Robinson, but not both.
Paul Richardson SEA WR 25 $1.1M $6.3M Richardson finished out his contract in Seattle with a really nice season, and should be targeting Kenny Stills' $8M per year mark this offseason, likely with a new team.
Sammy Watkins LAR WR 24 $4.9M $5.9M The #4 overall selection in 2014 averaged 3 catches and 44 yards per game over his past 2 seasons. Still, it's hard to imagine the Rams letting the 24-year-old walk this spring. His 2-year production has him valuing slightly less than $6M per year.

 

 

Tight Ends
Player Team POS Age 2017 AAV Market Value Thoughts
Jimmy Graham SEA TE 31 $10M $6.7M The idea of Graham in Russell Wilson' high-paced offense sounded great on paper, but never got off the ground in his 3 years there - though 10 TDs in 2017 was a big step forward. Now 31, Graham will need to find an offense that can afford him a few more targets to garner a near $7M salary.
Trey Burton PHI TE 26 $2.7M $7M Burton hasn't lit up the stat charts over the past two seasons, but the Eagles have used him extremely efficiently in their unique offense. He comps well with Jack Doyle, who scored $6.3M from the Colts last year.
Tyler Eifert CIN TE 27 $2M $7.6M Eifert's 2016 production was good enough to value him north of $8.2M. But a season-ending back injury + a knee issue in 2017 will squash his market and value. It's likely this is a 1 year, incentive-laden "show-me" deal.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins NYJ TE 25 $1.3M $4.1M Jenkins was asked to do a lot in a compressed Jets offense, and rewarded them with 50 grabs, 350 yards and 3 scores. He'll have his eye on Levine Toilolo's $4M annual deal as a starting point.
Ed Dickson CAR TE 30 $2M $3.5M Dickson has been a steady, versatile TE across 7 seasons, and saw a big jump in production with Greg Olsen's injury. His lack of end zone presence keeps his market value at bay though.

 

 

Offensive Linemen
Player Team POS AGE. 2017 AAV Market Value Thoughts
Nate Solder NE OT 29 $10M $13.2M Solder has had the pleasure of covering the GOAT's blind side for 7 years, and will require top-tackle money with his next deal. His $13.2M value is likely a baseline, as he should have no trouble surpassing Trent Williams' $13.6M mark - hometown discount notwithstanding
Andrew Norwell CAR OG 26 $2.7M $11.7M Norwell appears to be the next man up in terms of top-tier OL deals. He shouldn't have trouble surpassing Kevin Zeitler's $12M mark this spring. Carolina might slap the tag on him early to lock him down.
Josh Kline TEN OG 28 $1.65M $10.2M Kline may do well to find himself a more tradtiional passing offense this offseason, where his value appears to be highest. He appears poisted for Top 10 guard money either way.
Justin Pugh NYG OG 27 $2M $5.9M Injuries & too many pressures/sacks allowed over the past few seasons keep his calculated value at bay - but demand could drive this price up (See: Mike Iupati).
Ryan Jensen BAL OC 26 $1.8M $8.9M Jensen's strong 2017 campaign with the Ravens positions him as the best available center on the market. His calculated value projects him to Top 5 money.

 

 

Defensive Linemen
Player Team POS AGE. 2017 AAV Market Value Thoughts
DeMarcus Lawrence DAL DE 25 $1.3M $14M Lawrence had his best season to date in a contract year - a great formula for cash. There's been buzz the Cowboys will offer him a franchise tag next month (projected $16.5M), but they'll be pushing hard to extend him for cap management purposes.
Ezekiel Ansah DET DE 28 $4.6M $13.2M Ansah finished of his rookie deal with 12 sacks, 44 tackles, and a forced fumble. With Lawrence likely tagged, there's a legitimate chance Ansah is the best available DL on the market - which will mean extra dollars.
Sheldon Richardson SEA DT 27 $2.5M $12M The Seahawks defense could be in for a major overhaul this March, especially in the secondary, but all signs point to a reunion between Richardson and Seattle. He'll see a healthy raise wherever he winds up.
Star Lotulelei CAR DT 28 $2.4M $8.4M The #14 overall selection in 2013 began his career on track to become on of the top DTs in the game. But he's rapidly declined since then, now at his lowest valuation in 5 seasons.
Dontari Poe ATL DT 27 $8M $5.7M Poe managed average production on his 1 year "show me" deal with the Falcons this season, but some of that should be attributed to his role. He'll be seeking a multi-year contract this offseason, but the base pay may not be thrilling.

 

 

Linebackers
Player Team POS AGE. 2017 AAV Market Value Thoughts
Avery Williamson TEN ILB 25 $603,613 $9.1M One of the more underratted, reliable, durable middle defenders in the league. The Titans would be foolish to let him walk this March - though it'll cost them to keep him.
Nigel Bradham PHI OLB 28 $3.5M $5.9M Bradham crossed over to the Eagles with Jim Schwartz and didn't miss a beat. He's a tackle machine, and has grown into a defensive leader in Philly. At 29-years-old though teams shouldn't need to break the bank here.
Anthony Hitchens DAL ILB 25 $663,716 $6.4M Hitchens has been asked to move around the Dallas defense a bit, and has shown he can excel as a versatile linebacker. Dallas will be hard-pressed to keep too many of their free agents in house going forward, which could make Hitchens one of the more viable options on the market.
Tahir Whitehead DET OLB 27 $4M $8.5M Whitehead had a huge year stopping the run for the Lions, leading them in tackles (back to back 100+ seasons). A lack of pass-rush production keeps his market value on the lower side, but he's still due a nice raise in 2018.
Demario Davis NYJ ILB 28 $2.225M $5.1M The Jets have plenty of capital to dish out, but may clean house in a lot of areas as they continue their rebuild. Davis shouldn't be one of those areas, as he compiled nearly 100 tackles, an unusual 5 sacks, and was the clear leader of this defense in 2017. HIs $5.1M market value is a baseline - but Davis should be eyeing Danny Trevathan's $7M annual as a target.

 

 

Cornerbacks
Player Team POS AGE. 2017 AAV Market Value Thoughts
Malcolm Butler NE CB 27 $3.91M $13M Butler's 2017 production was a step back for the once highly-coveted corner, but this seems more a reflection of Stephon Gilmore's arrival than Butler's decline. His return to the Patriots is unlikely, meaning he'll be looking for a CB1 role, and CB1 pay. Logan Ryan's $10M annual in Tennessee is a baseline that Butler should exceed.
Trumaine Johnson LAR CB 28 $16.7M $11M Johnson reeled in over $30M the past two seasons on franchise tags, but saw his production slip a bit in 2017. The Rams have mouths to feed, making it likely that the 28-year-old hits the market. He should find Top 10 CB money there.
E.J. Gaines BUF CB 25 $581,918 $9.3M Gaines couldn't stay on the field the past 2 seasons, and missed 5 weeks in 2017 as well, but when active, was a very good fit in Buffalo's defense. Injuries and solid but not jaw-dropping production keeps his market value in the Top 20 region.
Patrick Robinson PHI CB 30 $775,000 $6.7M The 30-year old signed a "show me" minimum contract with Philadelphia, and he responded by playing a huge role in their run to the Super Bowl. He'll be eying Brandon Carr's 4 year, $23.5M contract with Baltimore this spring.
Bashaud Breeland WAS CB 25 $676,500 $6.9M Breeland doesn't have gaudy interception or tackle numbers, but he's shown to be an excellent shut down corner for Washington over the past two seasons. This generally equals additional money - especially at 25 years old. If he's allowed to walk interest could carry this to a Janoris Jenkins' like $12.5M deal.

 

 

Safeties
Player Team POS AGE. 2017 AAV Market Value Thoughts
LaMarcus Joyner LAR FS 27 $1.2M $10.7M Joyner flourished in Wade Phillips' defense, posting career-high production in a contract year with the Rams. He'll be the top safety on the market if he's allowed to walk, but is a strong franchise tag candidate as well.
Eric Reid SF SS 26 $2.1M $8.6M Reid's $8.6M market value would rank him 3rd among active strong safeties (Reshad Jones, Kam Chancellor, $12M). However his involvement with anthem protests may factor into his demand on the market.
Morgan Burnett GB SS 28 $6.1M $9.8M Burnett's age and injury history slightly hold back his value, but his production speaks for itself. The near 29-year old should find $10M+ annually this offseason.
Tre Boston LAC FS 25 $900,000 $8.2M After 3 INTs in 3 seasons, Boston posted 5 in 2017, to go along with 79 tackles and a phenomenal catch against %. The 25-year old is setup for a pay day.
Tyvon Branch ARI SS 31 $4M $5M After accepting a paycut to stick in Arizona, Branch had a really nice -albeit short, bounce back year. At 31-years old though it's tough to see him on anything more than a healthy 1 year pact.

 

 

Special Teams
Player Team POS AGE. 2017 AAV Market Value Thoughts
Matt Bryant ATL K 42 $2.8M $3M Bryant's average FG % leading up to his 3 year $8.5M extension in 2015 was 89.75%. His 2-year average leading up to this offseason is 89.55%. He also made 100% of his PATs in 2017.
Adam Vinatieri IND K 45 $3M $2.5M Vinatieri's production has slipped over the past 2 seasons, as his FG % hovers around 86%. However he was 11 for 13 in 40+ yard kicks in 2017. Indy should welcome him back.
Graham Gano CAR K 30 $3.1M $4M After years of average production, Gano had a career-season in 2017, posting a league-leading 96.7% field goal percentage. He'll likely target Mason Crosby's $4.025M annual this offseason.
Dustin Colquitt KC P 35 $3.75M $2.5M Statistically Colquitt's production dipped about 50% over a nice 2016 in KC (in terms of average distance and Inside 20). Jon Ryan's $2.5M AAV is a high ceiling for him.
Kevin Huber CIN P 32 $2.8M $3.25M Huber's been Top 10 in all major categories over the past 2 seasons, and should be targeting Sam Koch's $3.25M AAV for his nexxt deal.