Russell Wilson's future finances remain in limbo as reports continue that the two sides are plenty far apart in terms of guaranteed dollars. Wilson has long been the discussion of money, as the 3rd round pick has been hamstrung by the rookie wage scale to date, earning just $2.198 million in Seattle despite a plethora of winning and elite play. We'll assess the current value of Wilson as we near his contract year with the Seahawks, comparing his production to QBs of similar age and skill to produce a forecast for his forthcoming extension.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Guaranteed||Age When Signed|
Related: View the list of Top Average Paid Quarterbacks in the NFL
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Player||Games/YR||Pass YDS/YR||Pass YDs/G||Pass TDs/G||INT/YR||Comp %/YR|
|Andy Dalton (2012-13, CIN)||16||3981||298.8||1.875||1.125||62.1|
|Cam Newton (2013-14, CAR)||15||3253||216.9||1.4||.83||60.2|
|Colin Kaepernick (2012-13, SF)||14.5||2506||172.8||1.13||0.38||59.8|
|Aaron Rodgers (2011-12, GB)||15.5||4469||288.3||2.7||0.45||67.6|
|Russell Wilson (2013-14, SEA)||16||3416||217.2||1.43||.5||63.1|
|MEDIAN PRIME PERCENTAGE:||-1.38%|
|Average PRIME PErcentage:||-.03%|
|Player||RUSH ATT.||RUSH YDS/YR||RUSH YDS/ATT||RUSH TDS/YR|
|Andy Dalton (2012-13, CIN)||54||152||2.81||3|
|Cam Newton (2013-14, CAR)||107||562||5.3||5.5|
|Colin Kaepernick (2012-13, SF)||78||470||6.02||4.5|
|Aaron Rodgers (2011-12, GB)||57||306||5.36||3.5|
|Russell Wilson (2013-14, SEA)||107||694||6.5||3.5|
|MEDIAN PRIME PERCENTAGE:||38.93%|
|Average PRIME PErcentage:||37.25%|
As expected, Wilson is a step above the class - even surpassing Cam Newton in most statistical categories.
Length of the Contract
At 26 years old, and further instantiating himself as the long-term franchise quarterback solution in Seattle, length of contract should not be an issue here. It's somewhat prevelant for the current Seahawks front office to limit major extensions to 4 years. However in order to make the numbers fit in a manageable fashion, it seems likely that Wilson will add on 5 new years to his current 2015 season when all is said and done.
Value of the Contract
In terms of mathematics, and in the general role of the quarterback position across the league, it doesn't make sense to weigh the passing analysis and the rushing analysis evenly. With that being said, we'll apply our prime pecentages at a 70/30 ratio between the two categories respectively. This means we'll assess Wilson at a + 10.72% Median Prime Percentage, and an +11.16% Average Prime Percantage. Our initial base contract provided an average salary of more than $19M per year, a figure that would place him 8th among active quarterbacks. When factoring this with our Prime Figures:
Low Value (Hometown Discount)
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (10.72%), we're provided with a fairly modest value in terms of overall dollars and annual average:
5 years, $109,500,000 | $21,900,000 per year | $60,225,000 guaranteed
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (19.22%), we've given a slightly bigger forecast:
5 years, $110,020,000 | $22,004,000 per year | $61,611,200 guaranteed
The Seahawks are likely struggling with Wilson's (assumed) request for two things:
1) To surpass the $60M guaranteed mark
2) To surpass Cam Newton's $67M 3-year cash mark.
This isn't easily done in a shorter extension like Seattle generally pushes for, especially when pro-rated bonuses are involved. The 49ers were able to succeed in making Colin Kaepernick happy because of their "pay-to-play" guaranteed structure, and the heavy de-escalators based on merit. It's not likely Wilson will settle for either of these devices as he's proven durability and success in his 3 year span with the Seahawks.
When averaging our two values, we're given the following forecast for Russell Wilson's potential extension: