Extension Projection: Lavonte David

Extension Projection: Lavonte David
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Contract Forecast: Lavonte David

Lavonte David has been one of the best kept secrets on the defensive side of the ball through three full seasons in Tampa Bay. Highly under the radar, David's 4 yaer $3.6M rookie contract is set to expire after the 2015 season, making him a prime candidate for an upcoming extension with the Buccaneers.

At just 25 years old, David is a young, dynamic outside linebacker for Tampa's prolific 4-3 structure. We'll stack his recent production up against other 4-3 OLBs who signed extensions at a similar age with their respective teams to produce a value forecast for what his forthcoming contract might look like.

Comparable 4-3 Outside Linebackers
To generate a prediction the Spotrac team determined that the following linebackers were viable targets to use in comparing with David. The key was to locate players with similar numbers, who signed their second contract around the age of 25. To determine a more likely starting point for our numbers, we'll perform a linear regression of each contract listed below.
Player Length Value Avg. Salary Guaranteed Age When Signed
Thomas Davis  5 $36,500,000 $7,300,000 $8,000,000 27
K.J. Wright 4 $27,000,000 $6,750,000 $8,750,000 25
Vontaze Burfict  4 $19,004,000 $4,751,000 $6,904,000 23
Bruce Carter 4 $17,000,000 $4,250,000 $4,250,000 26
Averages 4.25 $24,876,000 $5,762,750 $6,976,000 25.25
We'll adjust their contracts up to reflect each as if it were signed at the age of 25 to provide a better scope for our base prediction.

Related:  View the list of Top Average Inside Linebackers in the NFL
Length Value Avg. Salary (slope)
5 $30,066,318 $6,013,264

Statistical Comparisons
Now we'll assess David statistically against our variable linebackers, taking a look at Games Played, Hurries/G, Sacks/G, Tackles/G, and Catch % per season.
Player G/YR HUR/G Sack/G TKL/G CATCH %
Thomas Davis (08-09) 11.5 .26 .21 6.08 71.05
Vontaze Burfict  (12-13) 16 .34 .125 5.875 78.25
K.J. Wright (13-14) 14.5 .41 .12 2.58 69.65
Bruce Carter (13-14) 14 .21 .1 4.64 74.25
AVERAGES 14 .30 .138 4.79 73.3
Lavonte David (13-14) 15 .7 .26 6.93 81.5
% Change 7.14% 128.2% 87.39% 44.56% 11.19%
MEDIAN PRIME PERCENTAGE: 44.56%
Average PRIME PErcentage: 55.70%
David posts one of the strongest statistical production comparions we've ever done, scoring positively across the board. He's a multi-tool, elite 4-3 outside linebacker, and at the age of 25, should cash in whole-heartedly. We'll factor this into our bottom line.
Results

Length of the Contract
While his age certainly isn't a factor, the majority of 4-3 OLBs are signing 4 year extensions. We'll bump this up to 5 years based on his age and level of production.

Value of the Contract
Our base contract outputted a value just north of $30 million over 5 years, or $6M per season, 18th most among active outside linebackers. When factoring in his impressive prime percentages based on statistical production this figure increases to a figure he's likely much more pleased with.

Low Value (HOMETOWN DISCOUNT)
Utilizing our Median Prime Percentage (44.56%), we're forecasting David as the 7th highest average paid OLB:
5 years, $42,500,000 | $8,500,000 per year | $24,000,000 guaranteed
High Value (MAX-VALUE DEAL)
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (50.93%), we're forecasting David as the 4th highest average paid OLB:
5 years, $45,000,000 | $9,000,000 per year | $27,200,000 guaranteed

We'll split the difference to offer the best-value forecast for David's next contract:

Spotrac's Prediction: 5 years, $43,750,000
Average annual salary $8,750,000, estimated $26,000,000 guaranteed

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