The recent signings of Dez Bryant (DAL), Demaryius Thomas (DEN), and now T.Y. Hilton (IND) have done well to pave the way for the next batch of elite receivers in need of a contract, notably Bengals' A.J. Green. Green is set to play out his $10.176M 5th year option in 2015, and could be a candidate for the franchise tag in 2016 should a new deal not be put into place. All signs point to an extension getting done, but with recent signing trends now in place, the numbers are certainly going to be inflated.
We'll do the math on just how high the figures have gotten, calculating the current value for A.J. Green based on his past two years of production, and comparing him to a variable set of receivers who have recently signed new deals.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
View the list of Top Average Paid Wide Receivers in the NFL
Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Dez Bryant (13-14, DAL)||16||5.625||79.8||9.25||.906|
|Demaryius Thomas (13-14, DEN)||16||6.375||95.3||10.18||.78|
|T.Y. Hilton (13-14, IND)||15.5||5.29||78.3||8.7||.38|
|Mike Wallace (11-12, PIT)||15.5||4.38||65.6||7.51||.51|
|A.J. Green (13-14, CIN)||14.5||5.79||85.1||10.2||.586|
|AVERAGE PRIME %:||2.22%|
|MEDIAN PRIME %||6.71%|
Length of the Contract
Our variable receiver contracts averaged out to 5 years. Now 27 years old Green is in a perfect postition for a 5 year extension (added on to his 2015 salary).
Value of the Contract
Green's been exceptional in the past three seasons in Cincinnati, somehwat under the radar on a typically un-sexy, not flashy Bengals offense. They'll need to pay Green as if he were hitting the open market to keep him in the orange uniform long-term, and financially speaking should have the means to do so. We'll break out our MEDIAN and AVERAGE figures:
Low Value (HOMETOWN DISCOUNT)
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (2.22%), we're given:
5 years, $68,378,985 |$13,675,797 per year | $42,400,000 guaranteed
High Value (MAX-VALUE DEAL)
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (6.71%), we're given:
5 years, $71,382,523 | $14,276,505 per year | $44,200,000 guaranteed
We'll split the difference to offer the best-value forecast for Green's next contract: