Extension Projection: A.J. Green

Extension Projection: A.J. Green
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Contract Forecast: A.J. Green

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The recent signings of Dez Bryant (DAL), Demaryius Thomas (DEN), and now T.Y. Hilton (IND) have done well to pave the way for the next batch of elite receivers in need of a contract, notably Bengals' A.J. Green. Green is set to play out his $10.176M 5th year option in 2015, and could be a candidate for the franchise tag in 2016 should a new deal not be put into place. All signs point to an extension getting done, but with recent signing trends now in place, the numbers are certainly going to be inflated.

We'll do the math on just how high the figures have gotten, calculating the current value for A.J. Green based on his past two years of production, and comparing him to a variable set of receivers who have recently signed new deals.

Comparable Wide Receivers
We've selected a variable set of receivers to compare Green to in terms of production. To determine a more likely starting point for our numbers, we'll perform a linear regression of each contract breakdown listed below.
Player Length Value Avg. Salary Age When Signed
Dez Bryant 5 $70,000,000 $14,000,000 26
Demaryius Thomas 5 $70,000,000 $14,000,000 27
T.Y. Hilton 5 $65,000,000 $13,000,000 25
Mike Wallace 5 $60,000,000 $12,000,000 26
Averages 5 $66,250,000 $13,250,000 26

Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.

View the list of Top Average Paid Wide Receivers in the NFL

Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:

Length Value Avg. Salary (slope)
5 $66,893,939 $13,378,788

Statistical Analyzations, Prime Percentage
Now let's analyze these players statistically in the year prior to signing their second contract by showing Games Played, Receptions per Game, Receiving Yards per Game, Yards of Catch per Game and Touchdowns per Year.
Player Games REC/G REC YDS/G TARG/G TD/G
Dez Bryant (13-14, DAL) 16 5.625 79.8 9.25 .906
Demaryius Thomas (13-14, DEN) 16 6.375 95.3 10.18 .78
T.Y. Hilton (13-14, IND) 15.5 5.29 78.3 8.7 .38
Mike Wallace (11-12, PIT) 15.5 4.38 65.6 7.51 .51
Averages 15.88 5.42 80.78 8.96 .71
A.J. Green (13-14, CIN) 14.5 5.79 85.1 10.2 .586
% Difference -7.94% 6.88% 6.71% 14.45% -9.01%
AVERAGE PRIME %: 2.22%
MEDIAN PRIME % 6.71%
Green certainly holds up against our variables, with a slight decrease in terms of games played due to injury. We'll factor in both the Average and Median percentages to show a range projection below.
Guaranteed Money
We'll factor in our variable wide receiver's guaranteed dollars to forecast what Green might expect.
Player Value True Guarantees % Guaranteed
Dez Bryant  $70,000,000 $45,000,000 64.29%
Demaryius Thomas  $70,000,000 $43,500,000 62.14%
T.Y. Hilton $65,000,000 $39,000,000 60%
Mike Wallace $60,000,000 $27,000,000 45%
Adjusted Regression: 61%
Results

Length of the Contract
Our variable receiver contracts averaged out to 5 years. Now 27 years old Green is in a perfect postition for a 5 year extension (added on to his 2015 salary).

Value of the Contract
Green's been exceptional in the past three seasons in Cincinnati, somehwat under the radar on a typically un-sexy, not flashy Bengals offense. They'll need to pay Green as if he were hitting the open market to keep him in the orange uniform long-term, and financially speaking should have the means to do so. We'll break out our MEDIAN and AVERAGE figures:

Low Value (HOMETOWN DISCOUNT)
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (2.22%), we're given:
5 years, $68,378,985 |$13,675,797 per year | $42,400,000 guaranteed
High Value (MAX-VALUE DEAL)
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (6.71%), we're given:
5 years, $71,382,523 | $14,276,505 per year | $44,200,000 guaranteed

We'll split the difference to offer the best-value forecast for Green's next contract:
Spotrac's Prediction: 5 years, $69,880,754

Average Salary: $13,976,151

Guaranteed Money: $43,000,000



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