Contract Prediction: Mike Wallace v2.0

Contract Prediction: Mike Wallace v2.0
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Contract Prediction: Mike Wallace (updated 2013)

With the recent signing of Dwayne Bowe, and the eerily quiet Greg Jennings camp, Steelers wide receiver Mike Wallace has quickly become the top focus for the March 12th free agent period set to begin.

Spotrac updates a previous report run in July of 2012 to re-assess the financial value of Wallace, by comparing Age, Statistic, and Dollars against other wide receivers in comparable range.

Comparable Wide Receiver Contracts
Player Length Value Avg. Salary Age When Signed
Brandon Marshall 5 $47.3 million $9.46 million 26
Santonio Holmes 5 $45 million $9 million 27
Desean Jackson 5 $47 million $9.4 million 25
Dwayne Bowe 5 $56 million $11.2 million 28
Wallace, now 26 finds himself in the middle of this group age-wise.. To determine a more likely starting point for our numbers, we'll perform a linear regression of the contract information listed above.

Definition: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
Length Value Average Salary
5 $48,825,000 $9,765,000
Statistical Analyzations
Now let's analyze these players statistically over their careers by showing Games/Season, Receptions/Season, Yards/Season, Yards/Game, and TD/Season. We'll also include statistics for the two years prior to that player signing his contract, to reflect a "prime" state he may have been in.
Brandon Marshall (CHI) Career Last 2 Seasons Prime %
Games/Season14.515.196%
Receptions/Season93.582.3114%
Rec Yards/Season10671041.2102%
Receiving Yards/Game73.5568.6107%
Receiving TD/Season6.55.7114%
107%
Santonio Holmes (NYJ) Career Last 2 Seasons Prime %
Games/Season1414.696%
Receptions/Season65.656.3117%
Rec Yards/Season997872.5114%
Receiving Yards/Game70.659.5119%
Receiving TD/Season5.55.796%
108%
Dwayne Bowe (KC) Career 2011-2012 Prime %
Games/Season14.614.599.3%
Receptions/Season69.170101.3%
Rec Yards/Season954.6980102.7%
Receiving Yards/Game65.167103%
Receiving TD/Season6.5461.5%
93.56%
Desean Jackson (PHI) Career 2010-2011 Prime %
Games/Season14.214.5102.1%
Receptions/Season54.852.595.8%
Rec Yards/Season951.61008.5106%
Receiving Yards/Game67.469.75103.4%
Receiving TD/Season4.65108.7%
103.2%
Mike Wallace (PIT) Career 2011-2012 Prime %
Games/Season15.7515.598.4%
Receptions/Season58.7568115.7%
Rec Yards/Season1010.51014100.3%
Receiving Yards/Game64.265.15101.4%
Receiving TD/Season88100%
103.16%
Stat-Adjusted Contraact Estimate
Let's factor in the 3.16% statistical prime we've determined Wallace to be producing at and see where our inflated numbers take us.
Length Value Average Salary
5 $53,707,500 $10,741,500
Final Results
Length of the Contract
At age 26, Wallace is just now about to enter his prime. A 5 year deal keeps wallace under 10 years of experience when completed (a push his agent will go for).

Value of the Contract
Wallace is the featured free agent Wide Receiver of his type this offseason. The recent signing of Bowe set the bar for this negotiation, and statistically we've found he matches up and exceeds his colleagues (especially in the TD category). The last item to factor in is age (26). Let's adjust our linear regression to assume ALL of our variables were 26 years old at the time of signing (adds $4,644,445)
Spotrac's Prediction: 5 years, $58,351,945



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