With training camps now underway, one notable holdout is Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Mike Wallace. The writing has been on the wall since the Steelers offered Wallace only his 1 year $2.72 million restricted tender this March, and now neither side seem to be giving in at any cost.
Now the plot has thickened even more so with the shocking extension of fellow receiver Antonio Brown to a 5 year $42 million deal,clearly sending a message that the team can and will move on in the immediate future. Mark Kaboly from the Pittsburgh Tribune recently reporting that Wallace turned down a 5 year $50 million offer from the Steelers, sending any progress in negotiations back to square one.
Our experts take a look at the recent contracts signed by players of similar age and statistical production, formulating an official prediction for where the two sides could, and should agree on.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
|Brandon Marshall||5||$47.3 million||$9.46 million||26|
|Santonio Holmes||5||$45 million||$9 million||27|
|Greg Jennings||4||$26.8 million||$11.25 million||26|
|Stevie Johnson||5||$36.25 million||$7.25 million||26|
|Calvin Johnson||8||$150.5 million||$16 million||26|
|Antonio Brown||6||$43.04 million||$8.5 million||24|
Definition: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
|Brandon Marshall (CHI)||Career||Last 2 Seasons||Prime %|
|Santonio Holmes (NYJ)||Career||Last 2 Seasons||Prime %|
|Greg Jennings (GB)||Career||2007-2008||Prime %|
|Stevie Johnson (BUF)||Career||2010-2011||Prime %|
|Calvin Johnson (DET)||Career||2010-2011||Prime %|
|Antonio Brown (PIT)||Career||2011-2011||Prime %|
|Mike Wallace (PIT)||Career||2010-2011||Prime %|
What we find here is that with the exception of Detroit's Calvin Johnson, all of these receivers were producing about 10% better in the years leading up to their contract when comparing to their career statistics. Antonio Brown has just one full season as a primary wide receiver, but to leave him out under the current circumstances seemed incorrect. We'll carry the 112% prime factor for Wallce through to our results.
Now let's see how Wallace's receiving statistics hold up against these players in the last two NFL seasons (2010, 2011) to flat out compare Wallace's recent value to them.
|Receptions||Last 2 Seasons||Wallace||% Difference|
Surprisingly what we're finding is that Wallace has indeed outperformed his receiving colleagues in all major statistics - with the exception of Calvin Johnson. These comparisons show that Wallace clearly does not belong in the conversation with Calvin Johnson and his recent contract numbers.
We'll re-address our initial linear regression, now WITHOUT including Calvin Johnson's contract information.
At age 26, Wallace is just now about to enter his prime. Our results show that the contract SHOULD be signed for 5 years, but based on the recent extension for Antonio Brown (6 years), we'll add the extra year.
Value of the Contract
It's tough to place Wallace at "elite" money level when looking at his above average, yet small resume. That being said the name of the game is guaranteed money, so the overall value of the contract doesn't necessarily need to be "shocking" to make him happy. We'll round our final numbers from above up to a nice and readable $9 million per year.