The Miami Dolphins made a lot of splashes this offseason - both in major free agent acquisitions (Mike Wallace, Dannell Ellerbe, Brent Grimes) and with the big move to trade up in the draft to select Dion Jordan at #3. But as per usual in the NFL, new work is right around the corner, and many feel extending young safety Reshad Jones is a priority.
The Georgia product is entering the final year of his $1.95 million rookie contract and had what many say was a true breakout year in 2012.
We'll put Jones' previous two years into our forecast tool, and compare him financially to other recent safety signings (sophomore deals) to project what could be his next contract.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
View the list of Top Average Paid Safeties in the NFL
Because Weddle and Griffin were older than Jones, we'll bring their above contracts down to his age by subtracting from the overall years to make each variable player 25 years old. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Player||Games||Tackles||Assists||Forced Fum.||INT||WR Catch %|
|Kam Chancellor (2011-12, SEA)||15.5||71||22||1.5||2||62.15|
|Eric Weddle (2009-10, SD)||14.5||73.5||15||0||2||62.45|
|Michael Griffin (2010-11, TEN)||16||72.5||19||1.5||3||60.4|
|Tyvon Branch (2010-11, OAK)||16||78||26||.5||1||65.7|
|Reshad Jones (2011-12, MIA)||15.5||59.5||19.5||1||2||62.8|
We'll factor the determined Prime Percentage of 2.12%, into our previously calculated base value.
|Player||Value||True Guarantees||% Guaranteed|
|Adjusted Regression + 2.12%||44.4%|
Length of the Contract
Looking at defensive back contracts in recent years, only L. Webb has signed a deal more than 5 years in length. The going length for a sophomore deal for this positio is 5 years, a figure our rounded averages work out to as well.
Value of the Contract
Our initial age-adjusted regression provided an average annual salary just north of $6.7M, which would make him the 10th highest average paid safety in football. When factoring a slight prime percentage of 2.12%, we're able to increase our forecase to the following:
• Average annual salary: $6,870,124
• Guaranteed money: $15,251,674