He's not a household name when it comes to major defensive players in the league - but Packers safety Morgan Burnett has quietly and productively outplayed his rookie contract. News out of Green Bay rumors the team and Burnett are in talks for an extension to keep the defensive back around long-term. Our premium team puts him through our statistical/financial analysis to prove his value and forecast numbers for the pending deal.
• He's the 69th highest average paid safety in the NFL currently.
• He led all safeties with 91 tackles in 2012
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
View the list of Top Average Paid Safeties in the NFL
Because Weddle and Griffin were older than Burnett, we'll bring their above contracts down to his age by subtracting from the overall years to make each variable player 25 years old. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Player||Games||Tackles||Assists||Forced Fum.||INT||WR Catch %|
|Kam Chancellor (2011-12, SEA)||15.5||71||22||1.5||2||62.15|
|Eric Weddle (2009-10, SD)||14.5||73.5||15||0||2||62.45|
|Michael Griffin (2010-11, TEN)||16||72.5||19||1.5||3||60.4|
|Tyvon Branch (2010-11, OAK)||16||78||26||.5||1||65.7|
|Morgan Burnett (2011-12, GB)||16||82.5||33||2||2.5||65.6|
We'll factor the determined Prime Percentage of 19.27%, into our previously calculated base value.
|Player||Value||True Guarantees||% Guaranteed|
Length of the Contract
Because we're treating this as an extension, we'll disregard the 2013 season, even though it will factor into the overall contract going forward. Our average contract length from variable safeties came out to 4.33 years. We'll round it down to a 4 year extension for Burnett.
Value of the Contract
Our initial age-adjusted regression provided an average annual salary just north of $6.7M, which would make him the 10th highest average paid safety in football. When factoring a significant prime percentage of 19.27%, we're able to increase our forecast to the following:
• Average annual salary: $8,023,890
• Guaranteed money: $16,635,317 (including 2013; over 5 years)