He may be 33 years old (34 early in the start of the 2013 season), but San Francisco 49ers defensive end Justin Smith continues to be a major contributor to the recent success of the franchise. He's entering his 6th year in SF, and his 13th overall - the final year of his 6 year $45 million contract and will be on showcase for many teams looking to bring in a short-term, veteran presence to their d-line in 2014.
Our premium experts put Smith's recent statistics to the test, comparing him to other veterans who signed the dotted line recently. The result will show a forecast of the years, value, and estimated guaranteed money Justin Smith may garner in San Francisco, or somewhere else in the 2014 offseason.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
|Dwight Freeney||2||$13.35 million||$6,675,000||33|
|Chris Clemons||3||$22 million||$7,333,333||31|
|Osi Umenyiora||2||$8.5 million||$4,250,000||31|
|Cory Redding||3||$10.5 million||$3,500,000||31|
Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
View the list of Top Average Paid Defensive Ends in the NFL
Because Smith (33) is older than the majorit of our variables at the times of their signings, we'll adjust the above contracts up/down to his age by subtracting from the overall years to make each variable player 33 years old. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Dwight Freeney (2011-12, IND)||15||6.75||13||36||5|
|Chris Clemons (2010-11, SEA)||16||11||33.5||30||6.5|
|Osi Umenyiora (2011-12, NYG)||12.5||7.5||23||18.5||3|
|Cory Redding (2010-11, BAL)||15||3.75||30||27||3|
|Justin Smith (2011-12, SF)||15||5.25||49.5||33.6||4|
|OVERALL PRIME %||20.62%|
|Player||Value||True Guarantees||% Guaranteed|
|Dwight Freeney||$13.35 million||$4,750,000||35.6%|
|Chris Clemons||$22 million||$10,000,000||45.5%|
|Osi Umenyiora||$8.5 million||$3,750,000||44.1%|
|Cory Redding||$10.5 million||$2,675,000||25.5%|
Length of the Contract
At 33, the going length of a deal for a defensive player seems to be 2 years (quickly assessing our archives). This is also what our age-adjusted formula provides us - so we'll use it for this forecast. Note: It may take a 3rd year to keep Smith in San Francisc, not to mention to reduce the annual cap figure.
Value of the Contract
Smiths' statistical percentages, even against players younger than him, turned out to be fantastic numbers in terms of negotiating leverage. He's still playing at a very high level entering his 13th season in the NFL and should be considered for the maximum value we can pulll from this formula. When adding in the prime percentage of 20.62%, the following forecast was determined:
• Guaranteed: $5,951,869 (45.43%)