It should be noted that though Houston is technically listed as an outside linebacker in the Chiefs 3-4 defense, his style of play and position per snap does leave the possibility of a defensive end tag in question. The franchise tag for defensive ends is projected to be about $1.5M larger than that of linebackers for the 2015 season. In light of the discrepancy, we'll include BOTH defensive ends and outside linebackers in our equation here.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
View the list of Top Average Paid Defensive Ends in the NFL
Because Houston (26) will be younger/older than some of our variable players were at the times of their signings, we'll adjust the above contracts up/down to his age by adding to their overall years to make each variable player 26 years old. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|J.J. Watt (2012-13, HOU)||16||15.5||67||69.5|
|Calais Campbell (2010-11, ARI)||16||7||49||42.5|
|MarIo Williams (2009-10, HOU)||14.5||10.5||19.5||28|
|Clay Matthews (2011-12, GB)||14||9.5||36||36|
|Tamba Hali (2009-10, KC)||16||12.5||41||32.5|
|Justin Houston (2013-14, KC)||13.5||16.5||49.5||44|
|AVERAGE PRIME %||15.06%|
|MEDIAN PRIME %||10.99%|
|Player||Value||True Guarantees||% Guaranteed|
Length of the Contract
A 6 year contract extension will allow the Chiefs the ability to spread out both a signing bonus and an option bonus without allocating too much pro-rated money in any given year (similar to Mario Williams' structure).
Value of the Contract
Houston has increased productivity in every season, rounding off 2014 with one of the better seasons in NFL history. He'll be highly sought should he hit the market - but all signs point to the Chiefs doing anything possible to not let that happen. Our base value of $13.665M per season ranks him as the 4th highest average paid defensive end, and the top paid outside lineback in football. When factoring in our prime percentages, our final prediction becomes:
• Guaranteed: $48,976,579 (53%)