The start of the 2013 NFL season hasn't exactly gone according to plan in Tampa Bay. And the root of the turmoil most certainly falls on the unreliability, immaturity, and considerable underperformance from their young quarterback Josh Freeman. Freeman entered the season as one of the "players to watch", with his 5 year $26 million rookie contract set to expire. But a slow start, and multiple on and off field incidents have driven the Freeman nearly out of town, with rumors of trades, benchings, etc flying around the wires.
We'll put dramatics aside and run Freeman through our projection tool to forecast his value as a quarterback, and what numbers could and should look like if a new contract were to be in the picture.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
View the list of Top Average Paid Quarterbacks in the NFL
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
Then, to assess how well the player was performing prior to signing their respective contract, we'll show the averages of these statistics two years prior to their signing date. This will give us a "Prime Percentage" for each player, providing us with a snapshot for how well that player was performing when the contract was signed in relation to his overall career.
|Mark Sanchez (2010-11, NYJ)||16||3382.5||55.8||21.6||15.5|
|Matt Schaub (2010-11, HOU)||13||3424||62.3||19.5||9|
|Jay Cutler (2007-08, DEN)||16||4011.5||62.95||22.5||16|
|Matthew Stafford (2011-12, DET)||16||5002.5||61.65||30.5||16.5|
|Josh Freeman (2011-12, TB)||15.5||3828||58.8||21.5||19.5|
|OVERALL PRIME %||-40%|
He may only be 25 years old, but Freeman won't be in the discussion for any of the maximum long-term deals being signed by some of his colleagues in recent. From a regression standpoint the recommended length of contract for this deal should be 3.25 years. We'll be fair and round it up to 4.
Value of the Contract
Our base/unadjusted contract ($12,446,384 per year) is probably fairly close to where many saw him headed this offseason. But the stats don't nearly hold up to that merit. An efficient finish to 2013 can certainly help him climb back into that kind of discussion but for now our projections find him well short.