Many feel the 4 year $12.6 million contract Jordy Nelson signed with the Packers in 2011 is still one of the best value (or biggest ripoff) deals in the game currently. Well that value may soon be coming to end in Green Bay as the 6 year wide receiver is entering a contract year, and reports are swirling that the two sides have indeed begun talks to extend his tenure as Packer.
Nelson has long been an underrated weapon for Aaron Rodgers, flying under the radar below flashier, louder receivers in his class. But year after year his statistics not only hold up, they exceed expectations. Over the past three seasons, Nelson is rated the #11th best wide receiver according to Pro Football Focus, even with just 12 games active in 2012 due to injury.
We'll run Jordy through our projection formula, now utilizing statistics from the 2012 & 2013 seasons, to predict what the Packers might be looking to offer him in the coming weeks.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
View the list of Top Average Paid Wide Receivers in the NFL
Because Nelson (29) is younger/older than some of our variables at the times of their signings, we'll adjust the above contracts up/down to his age by adding/subtractigin to the overall years to make each variable player 29 years old. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Player||Games||REC/YR||REC YDs/YR||REC YDs/G||TDs/YR|
|Greg Jennings (2011-12, GB)||10.5||51.5||657.5||62.6||6.5|
|Vincent Jackson (2010-11, SD)||10.5||37||677||64.5||6|
|Dwayne Bowe (2011-12, KC)||13||70||980||67.6||4|
|Brandon Marshall (2012-13, CHI)||16||109||1401.5||87.6||11.5|
|Jordy Nelson (2012-13, GB)||14||67||1029.5||73.5||7.5|
|AVERAGE PRIME %:||6.86%|
|MEDIAN PRIME %||7.14%|
Nelson not only belongs in this company, he slightly exceeds the average combined stats of our variable receivers. He'll be given positive checks across the board in terms of consistency, a premier go-to target, and the ability to find the end zone. We'll factor in both the Average and Median percentages to show a range projection below.
|Player||Value||True Guarantees||% Guaranteed|
Length of the Contract
Our variable receiver contracts averaged out to 4.5 years. At age 29, it's fair to assume that both Nelson and the Cowboys won't want to take this contract past the near the age of 35 - so a 4 year extension (taking him to age 33) make sense.
Value of the Contract
Nelson has been productive, reliable, and a class-act to play at the level he has for the base money he's been paid over the past 3 seasons. His 2012 injury was a bit of a setback in terms of durability, but a strong 2013 has all but overcome that at this point. In light of this, we'll provide the full 7% increase to our base values when forecasting Nelson's contract going forward.
Average Salary: $10,987,500
Guaranteed Money: $21,579,450
The $43.95 million contract would be the 10th highest for any active wide receiver, and the 3rd largest of any Packer. A $10.9875 million annual average salary ranks 6th, just ahead of Marshall and Percy Harvin, and 3rd most of any current Packer.