With a hot start to the 2013 season the Chicago Bears have been one of the teams to watch thus far, and with more weapons than he's had in recent years, Jay Cutler remains the focal point. Cutler's 5 year $50 million deal is set to expire after 2013, making him easily one of the top possible free agents this offseason.
We'll assess Cutler's statistical performance in 2011-12 and compare them to quarterbacks of similar age and production to determine a forecast a possible extension for Cutler.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
View the list of Top Average Paid Quarterbacks in the NFL
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
Then, to assess how well the player was performing prior to signing their respective contract, we'll show the averages of these statistics two years prior to their signing date. This will give us a "Prime Percentage" for each player, providing us with a snapshot for how well that player was performing when the contract was signed in relation to his overall career.
|Mark Sanchez (2010-11, NYJ)||16||211.41||55.8||21.6||15.5|
|Matt Schaub (2010-11, HOU)||13||263.38||62.3||19.5||9|
|Alex Smith (2010-11, SF)||13.5||204.4||65.75||15.5||7.5|
|Jay Cutler (2011-12 CHI)||12.5||214.08||58.5||16||10.6|
|OVERALL PRIME %||-28%|
Length of the Contract
In terms of length it makes sense to keep Cutler in the 3-4 year range, similar to that of Alex Smith's deal in KC. We'll round up to 4 in this case.
Value of the Contract
As a 30 year old quarterback with stats that don't jump off the page, Cutler will need to win - and win big in 2013 to really place himself with a great amount of leverage in terms of this extension. Our base/unadjusted contract ($11.1M per year) is probably fairly close to where many saw him headed this offseason (slightly higher than his current contract). But the stats don't nearly hold up to that merit. His 2013 appear to be headed towards better lines - and more importantly the wins have come with them. We'll keep true to our formula and offer the following prediction: