Contract Forecast: Jamaal Charles

Contract Forecast: Jamaal Charles
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Contract Forecast: Jamaal Charles

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As the Kansas City Chiefs prepare to break ground on their 2014 training camp, one player who reportedly won't be appearing is star running back Jamaal Charles, who is using the time to leverage a restructured extension.



Charles has two years remaining on his current deal with the Chiefs, including $9.9 million in cash to be earned (although $500,000 of that may be lost per his training camp holdout). His $4.7M annual average salary ranks 13th among active running backs, so it seems within reason that a new deal makes sense for both parties.

At 27 years old, the time to extend Charles is now - as the 30 year old mark has become a threshold for running backs and strong paydays. We'll run Charles through our projection formula, now utilizing statistics from the 2012 & 2013 seasons, to predict what the Chiefs would be looking at in terms of a value-based extension as it currently stands.

Comparable Running Backs
Charles won't turn 28 until the end of the year, so we'll evaluate him at an age of 27 - a prime age for running back extensions. We've selected variables that have similar skillsets to Charles: i.e. the ability to both run and catch within their offensive framework. To determine a more likely starting point for our numbers, we'll perform a linear regression of each contract breakdown listed below.
Player Length Value Avg. Salary Age When Signed
Adrian Peterson 7 $96,000,000 $ 13,714,286 27
Matt Forte 4 $30,400,000 $7,600,000 26
Arian Foster 5 $43,500,000 $8,700,000 26
Ray Rice 5 $35,000,000 $7,000,000 25
Averages 5 $53,225,000 $ 9,653,571 26.5

Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.

View the list of Top Average Paid Running Backs in the NFL

We'll adjust the above contracts up/down to his age by adding to the overall years to make each variable player 27 years old. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:

Length Value Avg. Salary (slope)
5 $58,910,256 $11,782,051

Statistical Analyzations: Rushing
Now let's analyze these players statistically, in terms of rushing, in the two years prior to signing their second contract. We'll compare Games Played, Rushing Attemps/Game, Rushing Yards/Game, Rushing TDS, and Fumbles.
Player Games RUSH ATT/G RUSH YDS/G RUSH TDS FUM
Adrian Peterson (2009-10, MIN) 15.5 19.25 86.5 15 4
Matt Forte (2010-11, CHI) 14 15.71 73.89 9 1
Arian Foster (2010-11, HOU) 14.5 20.86 97.9 13 4.5
Ray Rice (2010-11, BAL) 16 18.68 80.8 8.5 1
Averages 15 18.63 84.75 10.25 3
Jamaal Charles (2012-13, KC) 15.5 17.54 90.2 8.5 4.5
% Difference 3.33% -5.83% 6.43% -17.07% -50%
AVERAGE PRIME %: -16.62%
MEDIAN PRIME % -11.45%

Charles certainly belongs in conversation with our variable running backs statistically, especially in terms of durability and yards rushed. He scores a bit less and fumbles a bit more than our average elite back - but for all intents and purposes he stacks up nicely. We'll factor our average and median prime percentages below.


Statistical Analyzations: Receiving
Now let's analyze these players statistically, in terms of receiving, in the two years prior to signing their second contract. We'll compare Targets (Balls Thrown At)/G, Receptions/G, Receiving Yards/G, and Receiving Touchdowns.
Player Tar/G REC/G REC YDS/G REC TDS
Adrian Peterson (2009-10, MIN) 3.29 2.5 25.1 .5
Matt Forte (2010-11, CHI) 4.85 3.67 37.1 4
Arian Foster (2010-11, HOU) 2.41 4.1 42.1 2
Ray Rice (2010-11, BAL) 2.7 4.3 39.4 2
Averages 3.31 3.64 35.93 2.13
Jamaal Charles (2012-13, KC) 2.22 3.4 30 4
% Difference -32.98% -6.66% -16.49% 88.24%
AVERAGE PRIME %: 7.09%
MEDIAN PRIME % -6.66%

While Charles may be targeted a bit less than our average variable running back out of the backfield, his numbers still nearly even out . His 30 yards per game and 4 toucdowns per season make him a viable option in the passing game. We'll add these figures to our base financial numbers below.

Guaranteed Money
We'll factor in our variable wide receiver's guaranteed dollars to forecast what could expect.
Player Value True Guarantees % Guaranteed
Adrian Peterson $96,000,000 $36,000,000 37.5%
Matt Forte $30,400,000 $13,800,000 45.5%
Arian Foster $43,500,00 $20,750,000 47.7%
Ray Rice $43,000,000 $15,000,000 34.9%
Adjusted Regression: 39.1%
Results

Length of the Contract
Our variable running back contracts averaged out to over 5 years, and with 2 years remaining on his current deal in Kansas City, we'll assume this to be a 3 year extension. This brings Charles to the age of 32 years old at the end of the combined deal, still time to garner a small contract to finish out his career if he's healthy and producing.

Value of the Contract
Charles certainly didn't exceed the statistical production of our variable running backs - either in the Rushing or Passing game. When factoring in the Average (-9.53%) and Median (-18.11%) prime figures to our original base contract, we're left with the following extension:

Spotrac's Prediction: 3 years, $30,461,315

Average Salary:  $10,153,772

Guaranteed Money:  $12.185,000



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