Contract Forecast: Hakeem Nicks

Contract Forecast: Hakeem Nicks
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Contract Forecast: Hakeem Nicks

With the majorty of talk from the New York Giants in the 2013 offseason surrounding a new deal for Victor Cruz, the expiring contract of the other WR in town whas been glossed over. While injuries and the quick-growth of Victor Cruz have limited the spotlight in recent years, Hakeem Nicks has shown flashes of true elite talent in the NFL.

Our NFL Premium team put Nicks through the evaluation formula analyzing variable contracts, his current standing statistically against those receivers, and a little bit of math to generate our prediction for the next contract for the Giants big wide receiver.

Related: Our forecast for Victor Cruz's new deal

Comparable Wide Receivers
Nicks will be 26 (like Cruz) throughout his eligibility to be extended, the standard age for sophomore contracts to be signed, and the identical age of Pierre Garcon - our best target receiver for this prediction. To determine a more likely starting point for our numbers, we'll perform a linear regression of each contract breakdown listed below.
Player Length Value Avg. Salary Age When Signed
Pierre Garcon 5 $60 million $12,000,000 26
Dwayne Bowe 5 $56 million $11,200,000 27
Andre Johnson 7 $67.8 million $9,685,000 28
Roddy White 6 $42.7 million $7,120,000 27
Averages 5.75 $52,255,000 $9,126,429 27

Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.

Related: View the list of Top Average Paid Wide Receivers in the NFL

To provide a "base" prediction for this analysis, we'll take our linear regressed figures and include an adjustment to account for the difference in ages between Nicks and our variable receivers. The result provides us with the following initial terms:

Length Value Avg. Salary (slope)
5 $50,368,254 $10,073,651
Statistical Analyzations
Now let's analyze these players statistically in the year prior to signing their second contract by showing Games Played, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving Yards/Game, and Receiving TD.
Player Games Receptions Rec Yards REC Yards/Game REC TD
Pierre Garcon (2010-11, IND) 15 68.5 865.5 57.6 6
Andre Johnson (2008-09, HOU)16 108 1572 98.25 8.5
Dwayne Bowe (2011-2012, KC) 14.5 70 980 67 4
Roddy White (2007-08, ATL) 16 85.5 1292 80.75 6.5
Averages 15.3 83 1177.4 75.9 6.25
Hakeem Nicks (2011-12, NYG) 14 64.5 942 66.35 5
% Difference 91.06% 77.71% 80.01% 87.42% 80%
Our results here show that a combination of injury and "average" production in recent seasons brings him to a less-than-prime point of his career statistically. Nicks' overall 84.05% prime is one of the lowest figures we've reported in our past years of predictions, and will place a dent in the final terms for our analysis below.
Guaranteed Money
One of the main factors in dealing with "guaranteed money" is trust and dependability. While Nicks has shown gut and will to play through pain, the pain has been plentiful over his first 4 NFL seasons.
Player Value True Guarantees % Guaranteed
Pierre Garcon $42,500,000 $11,000,000 31.8%
Andre Johnson $67,800,8000 $15,000,000 22.1%
Dwayne Bowe $56,000,000 $20,000,000 35.7%
Roddy White $42,720,000 $18,600,000 43.5%
Adjusted Regression 26.8%
Length of the Contract
Nearly 26, Nicks has both maximum potential, and maximum question marks heading into his sophomore contract. When healthy, he's a legitimate WR1 - and a "throw it up and get it" kind of talent. The Giants have two obstacles in finalizing this deal - Durability, and Victor Cruz. The average length of our variable contracts was 5.25 years, so we'll round DOWN to account for his current concerns. We'll call it a 5 year deal.

Value of the Contract
Our initial age-adjusted regression brought forth a deal north of ten million dollars per year. While Nicks has shown signs of this kind of value, it hasn't been consistent enough to truly place that kind of number on his name. His statistical prime percentage has us reducing that figure by 17%, a large number - but a fair one in considering our process. We'll do the same reduction to our regressed Guaranteed Percentage of 26.8, bringing us to the following overall prediction.
Spotrac's Prediction: 5 years, $41,805,651
Average annual salary $8,361,130, estimated $9.28 million guaranteed