With the majorty of talk from the New York Giants in the 2013 offseason surrounding a new deal for Victor Cruz, the expiring contract of the other WR in town whas been glossed over. While injuries and the quick-growth of Victor Cruz have limited the spotlight in recent years, Hakeem Nicks has shown flashes of true elite talent in the NFL.
Our NFL Premium team put Nicks through the evaluation formula analyzing variable contracts, his current standing statistically against those receivers, and a little bit of math to generate our prediction for the next contract for the Giants big wide receiver.
Related: Our forecast for Victor Cruz's new deal
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
|Pierre Garcon||5||$60 million||$12,000,000||26|
|Dwayne Bowe||5||$56 million||$11,200,000||27|
|Andre Johnson||7||$67.8 million||$9,685,000||28|
|Roddy White||6||$42.7 million||$7,120,000||27|
Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
To provide a "base" prediction for this analysis, we'll take our linear regressed figures and include an adjustment to account for the difference in ages between Nicks and our variable receivers. The result provides us with the following initial terms:
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Player||Games||Receptions||Rec Yards||REC Yards/Game||REC TD|
|Pierre Garcon (2010-11, IND)||15||68.5||865.5||57.6||6|
|Andre Johnson (2008-09, HOU)||16||108||1572||98.25||8.5|
|Dwayne Bowe (2011-2012, KC)||14.5||70||980||67||4|
|Roddy White (2007-08, ATL)||16||85.5||1292||80.75||6.5|
|Hakeem Nicks (2011-12, NYG)||14||64.5||942||66.35||5|
Nearly 26, Nicks has both maximum potential, and maximum question marks heading into his sophomore contract. When healthy, he's a legitimate WR1 - and a "throw it up and get it" kind of talent. The Giants have two obstacles in finalizing this deal - Durability, and Victor Cruz. The average length of our variable contracts was 5.25 years, so we'll round DOWN to account for his current concerns. We'll call it a 5 year deal.
Value of the Contract
Our initial age-adjusted regression brought forth a deal north of ten million dollars per year. While Nicks has shown signs of this kind of value, it hasn't been consistent enough to truly place that kind of number on his name. His statistical prime percentage has us reducing that figure by 17%, a large number - but a fair one in considering our process. We'll do the same reduction to our regressed Guaranteed Percentage of 26.8, bringing us to the following overall prediction.