With the 2013 NFL season just around the corner, the Carolina Panthers don't appear to be done getting their current roster's long-term situation in order. Reportedly in talks with their young defensive end Greg Hardy, the Panthers have positioned themselves well for extensions like these, having turned around nearly $28M in cap space in the past calendar year of work.
Hardy comes off an impressive, possibly break out, 2012, ranking #6 on Pro Football Focus' 4-3 Defensive End charts, and having just turned 25 years old, is in position to become a long-term pass rushing fixture in Carolina.
We'll put him through the projection formula to analyze his statistical comparison to a few relevant ends in the league, and produce a forecast for the coming extension.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
View the list of Top Average Paid Defensive Ends in the NFL
Because Hardy (25) is younger/older than some of our variable linemen were at the times of their signings, we'll adjust the above contracts up/down to his age by adding/subtracting from the overall years to make each variable player 25 years old. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Carlos Dunlap (2011-12, CIN)||13||5||27||22||2|
|MarIo Williams (2009-10, HOU)||14.5||10.5||19.5||28||3.5|
|Charles Johnson (2009-10, CAR)||14.5||7.75||34||30.5||5|
|Chris Long (2010-11, STL)||16||10.5||19||25||3.5|
|Greg Hardy (2011-12, CAR)||15.5||8.5||37.5||34.5||5.5|
|OVERALL PRIME %||6.41%|
|Player||Value||True Guarantees||% Guaranteed|
Length of the Contract
Young pass rushers are still prime contenders for long-term deals in the modern NFL. The Panthers gave Charlson Johnson a 6 year deal at this age in 2011, so there's no reason to believe Hardy won't get 6 as well.
Value of the Contract
The statistical breakdown of Hardy in comparison to our variable defensive ends may have raised some eyebrows - as he clearly matches up. A big 2012 leaves him in a prime seat to cash in right now, and the Panthers appear to be following suit. Outside of penalities, his numbers add up to a positive prime percentage, and nearly 35% of his deal to be guaranteed.
• Guaranteed: $28,335,373 (34.5%)