UPDATED: The following projection is the second version of our original Eric Decker Contract Forecast, published in May of 2013. Now set to hit free agency, we'll take a look at how Decker's 2013 campaign with the Bronocos affected his valuation as he seeks a new NFL contract. Decker quietly posted a career year with the Broncos in 2013, totalling 87 catches (his number), 1,288 yards, and 11 touchdowns.
In light of this, we'll once again put Decker through our forecasting tool to predict what a value new contract could look like either in Denver - or on the open market.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
View the list of Top Average Paid Wide Receivers in the NFL
Because Decker (26) is older than a few of our variables at the times of their signings, we'll adjust the above contracts up to his age by subtracting from the overall years to make each variable player 26 years old. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Player||Games||Receptions||Rec Yards||REC Yards/Game||REC TD|
|DeSean Jackson (2010-11, PHI)||14||52||1008||69.6||5|
|Percy Harvin (2011-12, MIN)||12||74||822||65.8||4|
|Pierre Garcon (2010-11, IND)||15||68||866||57.7||6|
|Victor Cruz (2011-12, NYG)||16||84||1314||82.1||10|
|Eric Decker (2012-13, DEN)||16||86||1176||73.5||12|
|AVERAGE PRIME %:||30.43%|
|MEDIAN PRIME %:||17.31%|
|Player||Value||True Guarantees||% Guaranteed|
Length of the Contract
Our variable receiver contracts averaged out to 5.25 years, a figure we'll round down for projection purposes (especially with Decker already 26 years of age).
Value of the Contract
Decker is not only talented, flexible, and likeable - but he's also reliable. He carries all the necessary tools with him into a seemingly week WR market (in terms of receivers with his style of play). Our initial base terms brought forth an average annual salary just under $9.3M, a figure that would make him the 9th highest average paid wide receiver in football. But his prime percentages drawn from excellent statistical production over the 2012-13 seasons increased that number dramatically. We'll take a unique approach here, and process two separate values, providing a low and high bar for Decker, possibly in terms of a hometown discount to remain with the Broncos.
Low Value (Hometown Discount)
Utilizing our Median Prime Percentage (17.31%), we're forecasting Decker as the 5th highest average paid WR:
5 years, $54,438,268 | $10,887,654 per year | $16,491,718 guaranteed
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (30.43%), we're forecasting Decker as the 3rd highest average paid WR:
5 years, $60,526,667 | $12,105,333 per year | $20,386,882 guaranteed
We'll split the difference to offer the best-value forecast for Decker's next contract.