One of the more compelling contracts set to expire after the 2013 NFL season is that of Denver Broncos breakout wide receiver Eric Decker. In a recent report by our premium team, we determined that Decker is a 50/50 candidate to be extended with the Broncos, as financially they may have better options to pursue.
In light of this, and some great feedback from our Spotrac community, we'll put Decker through our forecasting tool to predict what a value deal might look like, either as an extension with Denver, or once he hits free agency.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
|Brian Hartline||5||$30.7 million||$6,155,000||26|
|Miles Austin||7||$54.1 million||$7,728,571||25|
|Stevie Johnson||5||$36.25 million||$7,250,000||25|
|Pierre Garcon||5||$42.5 million||$8,500,000||25|
Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
View the list of Top Average Paid Wide Receivers in the NFL
Because Decker (26) is older than a few of our variables at the times of their signings, we'll adjust the above contracts up to his age by subtracting from the overall years to make each variable player 26 years old. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Player||Games||Receptions||Rec Yards||REC Yards/Game||REC TD|
|Brian Hartline (2011-12, MIA)||16||54.5||816||51||1|
|Pierre Garcon (2010-11, IND)||15||68.5||865.6||57.5||6|
|Stevie Johson (2010-11, BUF)||16||79||1038.5||64.59||8.5|
|Miles Austin (2011-12, PIT)||13||54.5||761||58.4||6.5|
|Eric Decker (2011-12, DEN)||16||64.5||838||52.4||10.5|
|OVERALL PRIME %||17.00%|
|Player||Value||True Guarantees||% Guaranteed|
Length of the Contract
The going length of a sophomore wide receiver contract age 26 or greater has been 5 years. There's no reason to believe Decker will get a 6th. We'll use 5 years for our forecast.
Value of the Contract
Decker matched up evenly in statistical comparisons, with the exception of Touchdowns, where he much-exceeded the field.Our base regression of contracts for receivers in his age/talent class left us with an $7.4M/year starting point. With a 17% statistical prime number to factor in the following forecast can be determined:
• Guaranteed: $14,173,326 (33.4%)