His quarterback is newly and plentifully extended, and the other offensive pieces around him (Miles Austin, Demarco Murray, and recently Jason Witten) have trouble staying healthy for long periods of time. All signs point to Dez Bryant being the focal point by which the Cowboys plan around in 2013, and quite possibly a monster statistical season for the 3 year receiver.
With that being said, our Premium NFL team analyzes the financial & statistically comparisons to forecast an extension the Cowboys should offer Bryant THIS offseason - assuming that waiting another year may cost them plenty more.
It should be noted that a recent prediction for Giants WR Hakeem Nicks has been qualified as a model for our analysis with Bryant.
• His 92 Receptions in 2012 accounted for 41% of passes caught by Cowboys' WR.
• He has 11 TDs, 52 rec., & 602 yards more than Demaryius Thomas - the only WR taken ahead of him in the 2010 draft.
• According to Pro Football Focus, his two biggest weaknesses are Blocking and Penalties.
The most important factor to mention here is the inclusion of Detroit WR Calvin Johnson - who's been left out of all other Wide Receiver forecast analyzations due to the large gap in statisical comparison. Bryant is the first receiver to come fairly close in "type" and "production" - a big receiver, generally un-coverable, who scores every week.
To determine a more likely starting point for our numbers, we'll perform a linear regression of each contract breakdown listed below.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
|Calvin Johnson||7||$132 million||$18,857,143||25|
|Pierre Garcon||5||$60 million||$12,000,000||26|
|Dwayne Bowe||5||$56 million||$11,200,000||27|
|Andre Johnson||7||$67.8 million||$9,685,000||28|
|Roddy White||6||$42.7 million||$7,120,000||27|
Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
View the list of Top Average Paid Wide Receivers in the NFL
Because Bryant (24.5) is younger than all of our variable receivers, we'll bring the above contracts down to his age by subtracting from the overall years to make each variable player 24 years old. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Player||Games||Receptions||Rec Yards||REC Yards/Game||REC TD|
|Calvin Johnson (2010-11, DET)||15.5||86.5||1400.5||89.9||14|
|Pierre Garcon (2010-11, IND)||15||68.5||865.5||57.6||6|
|Andre Johnson (2008-09, HOU)||16||108||1572||98.25||8.5|
|Dwayne Bowe (2011-2012, KC)||14.5||70||980||67||4|
|Roddy White (2007-08, ATL)||16||85.5||1292||80.75||6.5|
|Dez Bryant (2011-12, DAL)||15.5||77.5||1155||74.15||10.5|
With two years remaining on his 5 year rookie contract we'll be realistic in assuming that an extension right now would add 5 years to the remaining figures.
Value of the Contract
Our initial age-adjusted regression provided an average annual salary just north of $13M. Even with the inclusion of arguably the best "big" receiver in the game in Calvin Johnson, Bryant held up a positive Prime Percentage (103%). When factoring this into both our initial contract value and guaranteed money percentage we're able to forecase the following: