One of the more polarizing contracts set to expire after the 2014 season has to be Denver Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas. The Broncos have put together an offense of multi-faceted weapons, , and . We'll place Thomas up against comparable veteran wide receivers, comparing their statistical production leading up to their recent contract, to Thomas' 2011-12 statistics.
When lining up these three years in terms of snaps, the averages across the board are fairly similar. On pace for nearly 1200 snaps in 2013, Thomas' production has increased consistently each year in the league. While the numbers are better with Peyton, they're not drastic enough to become a factor in our prediction formula.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
View the list of Top Average Paid Wide Receivers in the NFL
Because Thomas is 25, we'll adjust the above contracts respectively to his age by adding/subtracting from the overall years to make each variable player 25 years old. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Player||Games||Rec/G||Rec YDS/G||Rec YDS/YR||Rec TD/YR|
|Brandon Marshall (09-10, DEN)||14.5||6.45||73.59||1067||6.5|
|Andre Johnson (05-06, HOU)||14.5||5.72||63.28||917.5||3.5|
|Vincent Jackson (08-09, SD)||10.5||3.52||64.48||677||6|
|Pierre Garcon (08-09, IND)||15||4.57||57.7||865.5||6|
|Larry Fitzgerald (04-05, ARI)||14||6.04||84.11||1177.5||8|
|Demaryius Thomas (12-13, DEN)||13.5||4.67||73.52||992.5||7|
|Average Prime %:||17%|
|Player||Value||True Guarantees||% Guaranteed|
The mathematical average of the five contracts used as variables is 5.25 years. Add in recent contracts of 6 years for Victor Cruz, Percy Harvin, and Antonio Brown and we'll round up for the benefit of the doubt to 6 years.
Value of the Contract
Thomas has been consistent, above average, and durable. A recipe for big money, and leverage for guaranteed cash. We'll factor in our 17% prime to the original base numbers to output our formal prediction.
• Guaranteed Money: $19,614,000