It looks like the months (if not years) of rumors are finally coming to fruition in New York, as reports are stating that the Jets have indeed agreed on a trade to send their embattled star cornerback Darrelle Revis to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The reports are also telling us that a new deal is the works for Revis and the Bucs - at what might average out to $14M per year.
This news sparked our NFL Premium team to run Revis through the forecasting tool and pull out a contract based on his age, and statisticial value against other top defensive backs on the NFL. We'll use Revis' statistics from 2010-2011 in order to gauge a better snapshot of his performance without his major 2012 injury impeding our data. The majority of our variable players will be assessed in these years as well, having signed their extensions prior to the 2012 season. Here we go:
• He was throw at 85 times in 2011, but give up only 35 receptions.
• Since 2010, Revis has only drawn 4 penalties - 2 of which offset.
• Since 2010, he's only missed 7 tackles.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
|Brandon Carr||5||$50.1 million||$10,020,000||26|
|Lardarius Webb||6||$50 million||$8,333,333||26|
|Cortland Finnegan||5||$50 million||$10,000,000||28|
|Johnathan Joseph||5||$48.75 million||$9,750,000||27|
Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
View the list of Top Average Paid Cornerbacks in the NFL
Because Finnegan/Carr/Webb were younger than Revis (will be), we'll bring the above contracts down to his age by subtracting from the overall years to make each variable player 27 years old. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Player||Games||Tackles||Assists||Forced Fum.||INT||WR Catch %|
|Cortland Finnegan (2010-11, TEN)||16||70.5||17||1||1.5||65.05|
|Brandon Carr (2010-11, KC)||16||42.5||8.5||0||2.5||61.75|
|Johnathan Joseph (2009-10, CIN)||14||47||8||0||4.5||61.65|
|Lardarius Webb (2010-11, BAL)||15.5||42.5||8.5||1||3.5||60.15|
|Darrelle Revis (2010-11, NYJ)||14.5||33.5||8.5||0||2||39.9|
|Overall Prime %||-4.94%|
|Shutdown Prime %||35.8%|
It's obvious that Revis cannot be considered a "5-tool defensive back". We'll show him for what he is, the best shutdown cornerback in football, at a Prime Percentage of 35.8%, a figure we'll multiply into our previously determined base value.
Length of the Contract
Looking at defensive back contracts in recent years, only L. Webb has signed a deal more than 5 years in length, most likely attributed to his young 26 years of age. Revis, soon to be 28, should garner no more than 5 years.
Value of the Contract
Our initial age-adjusted regression provided an average annual salary just north of $9.5M. The only chance this forecast had to bump that average anywhere near the reported $14M per year number was a strong Prime Statistical return from Revis. But his OVERALL -4.94% would have reduced that figure. By separating his role as a "shutdown corner", we'll factor in the +35.8% difference, our initial contract value and guaranteed money percentage to output the following forecast:
• Average annual salary: $12,952,714
• Guaranteed money: $33,125,000