Contract Forecast: Darrelle Revis

Contract Forecast: Darrelle Revis
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Contract Forecast: Darrelle Revis

It looks like the months (if not years) of rumors are finally coming to fruition in New York, as reports are stating that the Jets have indeed agreed on a trade to send their embattled star cornerback Darrelle Revis to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The reports are also telling us that a new deal is the works for Revis and the Bucs - at what might average out to $14M per year.

This news sparked our NFL Premium team to run Revis through the forecasting tool and pull out a contract based on his age, and statisticial value against other top defensive backs on the NFL. We'll use Revis' statistics from 2010-2011 in order to gauge a better snapshot of his performance without his major 2012 injury impeding our data. The majority of our variable players will be assessed in these years as well, having signed their extensions prior to the 2012 season. Here we go:

Quick Points
  • In 2011, Revis was ranked the best CB by Pro Football Focus by more than 7%..
  • He was throw at 85 times in 2011, but give up only 35 receptions.
  • Since 2010, Revis has only drawn 4 penalties - 2 of which offset.
  • Since 2010, he's only missed 7 tackles.
Comparable Cornerbacks
Darrelle Revis wil be 28 this July, so we'll assume that number for our evaluation purposes. We've located four cornerbacks of similar age, all with top contracts and statistical value in recent season. To determine a more likely starting point for our Revis numbers, we'll perform a linear regression of each contract breakdown listed below.
Player Length Value Avg. Salary Age When Signed
Brandon Carr 5 $50.1 million $10,020,000 26
Lardarius Webb 6 $50 million $8,333,333 26
Cortland Finnegan 5 $50 million $10,000,000 28
Johnathan Joseph 5 $48.75 million $9,750,000 27
Averages 5.25 $49,712,500 $11,072,571 26.75

Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.

View the list of Top Average Paid Cornerbacks in the NFL

Because Finnegan/Carr/Webb were younger than Revis (will be), we'll bring the above contracts down to his age by subtracting from the overall years to make each variable player 27 years old. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:

Length Value Avg. Salary (slope)
5 $47,690,404 $9,538,081
Statistical Analyzations, Prime Percentage
Now let's analyze these players statistically in the two years prior to signing their second contract by showing Games Played, Tackles, Assists, Forced Fumbles, Interceptions, and the percentage the oppising WR caught the ball against the DB. The results will provide us with an indication of his "prime" value prior to signing an extension.
Player Games Tackles Assists Forced Fum. INT WR Catch %
Cortland Finnegan (2010-11, TEN) 16 70.5 17 1 1.5 65.05
Brandon Carr (2010-11, KC) 16 42.5 8.5 0 2.5 61.75
Johnathan Joseph (2009-10, CIN) 14 47 8 0 4.5 61.65
Lardarius Webb (2010-11, BAL) 15.5 42.5 8.5 1 3.5 60.15
Averages 15.375 53.25 11.125 0.5 3 62.15
Darrelle Revis (2010-11, NYJ) 14.5 33.5 8.5 0 2 39.9
% Difference -5.69% -37.09% -23.6% -100% -33.33% 35.8%
Overall Prime % -4.94%
Shutdown Prime % 35.8%
Our results here show that Revis is CLEARLY below par with these defensive backs statistically, with the exception of Opposing WR Catch %, where Revis stands alone. He's truly a "Shutdown Corner", in which the "sexy" defensive back statistics aren't heavily accounted for with his resume. Finnegan was clearly paid for his ability to top the run; Carr was pretty solid across the board, Joseph weighted more toward picking off balls in the air, and Webb VERY similar to Carr's numbers as a whole. This being said, factoring the total percentages across the board brings us to -4.94%.

It's obvious that Revis cannot be considered a "5-tool defensive back". We'll show him for what he is, the best shutdown cornerback in football, at a Prime Percentage of 35.8%, a figure we'll multiply into our previously determined base value.
Guaranteed Money
Revis has been a pill to the Jets from a "business" and "offseason" standpoint. He's held out. His contractual complaints were an annual event on the calendar. And he's had bouts with major injuries. That being said, Revis won't settle for less than AMPLE guaranteed money in his new deal. We'll break down our averages below:
Player Value True Guarantees % Guaranteed
Lardarius Webb $50,00,000 $15,615,000 31.2%
Brandon Carr $50,100,000 $25,500,000 50.9%
Cortland Finnegan $50,000,000 $24,000,000 48%
Johnathan Joseph $48,750,000 $17,500,000 35.9%
Adjusted Regression 38.8%

Length of the Contract
Looking at defensive back contracts in recent years, only L. Webb has signed a deal more than 5 years in length, most likely attributed to his young 26 years of age. Revis, soon to be 28, should garner no more than 5 years.

Value of the Contract
Our initial age-adjusted regression provided an average annual salary just north of $9.5M. The only chance this forecast had to bump that average anywhere near the reported $14M per year number was a strong Prime Statistical return from Revis. But his OVERALL -4.94% would have reduced that figure. By separating his role as a "shutdown corner", we'll factor in the +35.8% difference, our initial contract value and guaranteed money percentage to output the following forecast:

Spotrac's Prediction: 5 years, $64,763,569

  •  Average annual salary: $12,952,714
  •  Guaranteed money: $33,125,000