With the 7 year extension of quarterback Jay Cutler now in the books, one of the upcoming bullets on the Chicago Bears to-do list may be the extension of their veteran wideout Brandon Marshall, whose 5 year $45 million contract expires after the 2014 season. While many franchises may be at a crossroads with wide receivers nearly 30 years old, it's almost a given that the Bears aren't at all interested in letting Marshall test the market. His relationship and chemistry with Cutler has been well documented both off the field and in terms of production on the field. Add in now the need for a veteran presence to lead a young, exciting, offensive arsenal in Chicago, and it seems like a match made in heaven to lock Marshall up for the foreseeable future.
We'll run Brandon Marshall through our contract forecast formula, placing him up against eight of the best wide receivers in the game to compare his production against each using the major receiving statistics.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
View the list of Top Average Paid Wide Receivers in the NFL
Because Marshall will be 30 in March, we'll adjust the above contracts respectively to his age by adding/subtracting from the overall years to make each variable player 30 years old. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Player||Games||Rec/G||Rec YDS/G||Rec YDS/YR||Rec TD/YR|
|Vincent Jackson (2009/11, SD)||15.5||4.12||73.45||1136.7||9|
|Andre Johnson (08-09, HOU)||16||6.75||98.25||1572||8.5|
|Greg Jennings (2011-12, GB)||10.5||4.9||62.62||657.5||6.5|
|Dwayne Bowe (2011-12, KC)||14.5||4.83||67.59||980||4|
|Larry Fitzgerald (2009-10, ARI)||16||5.84||69.66||1114.5||9.5|
|Calvin Johnson (2010-11, DET)||15.5||5.58||90.35||1400.5||14|
|Steve Smith (2010-11, CAR)||15||4.17||64.93||974||4.5|
|Anquan Boldin (2008-09, ARI)||13.5||6.41||76.37||1031||7.5|
|Brandon Marshall (2012-13, CHI)||16||6.81||87.6||1401.5||11.5|
|Median Prime %:||26.46%|
|Player||Value||True Guarantees||% Guaranteed|
|Adjusted w/ Prime Percentage||44.42%|
The mathematical average of the five contracts used as variables is 5.75 years. But when scoping down to players who signed contracts at 30 years or older, the going length is no more than 5 years. We'll use this as our value (though it's perfectly possible the Bears add years on as part of the "hometown discount", i.e. Cutler).
Value of the Contract
Marshall has been durable, and downright spectacular in terms of statistical production throughout his career - and especially in his veteran seasons with the Bears. A recipe for big money, and leverage for guaranteed cash. We'll factor in our 26.46% prime to the original base numbers to output our formal prediction.
• Guaranteed Money: $31,000,000