Calculating the Current Value of WR Dez Bryant

Calculating the Current Value of WR Dez Bryant
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UPDATED Contract Forecast: Dez Bryant

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The Cowboys have had plenty of time to hammer out a deal with Dez Bryant, and per recent reports, it appears that time has finally come. He's made it clear that the $12.823M franchise tag he was offered this spring wasn't to his liking, and has publicly threatened to hold out in light of it. With the July 15th deadline to extend franchised players looming, a new deal appears imminent. We'll run Bryant through our projection formula, now utilizing statistics from the 2013 & 2014 seasons, to predict what the Cowboys should be putting in front of him in the next few days
Comparable Wide Receivers
Now 26 years old, Bryant is a bit younger than Vincent Jackson was at the time of his last signing. We'll adjust his contract accordingly, then to determine a more likely starting point for our numbers, we'll perform a linear regression of each contract breakdown listed below.
Player Length Value Avg. Salary Age When Signed
Calvin Johnson 7 $113,445,000 $16,207,857 26
Vincent Jackson  5 $55,555,555 $11,111,111 29
Jeremy Maclin  5 $55,000,000 $11,000,000 26
Mike Wallace 5 $60,000,000 $12,000,000 26
Averages 6.5 $88,563,750 $13,509,107 26.75

Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.

View the list of Top Average Paid Wide Receivers in the NFL

Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:

Length Value Avg. Salary (slope)
5 $66,409,789 $13,281,958

Statistical Analyzations, Prime Percentage
Now let's analyze these players statistically in the year prior to signing their second contract by comparing Games Played, Receptions/Year, Receiving Yards/Year, Receiving Yards/Game, and Receiving TDs between our variables and Bryant.
Player Games REC/G REC YDS/G TARG/G TD/G
Calvin Johnson (2010-11, DET) 15.5 5.53 90.4 9.51 .903
Vincent Jackson (2010-11, SD) 10.5 3.52 64.5 6.66 .57
Jeremy Maclin (2014, PHI) 16 5.31 82.4 8.9 .625
Mike Wallace (2011-12, PIT) 15.5 4.38 65.6 7.51 .51
Averages 14.38 4.69 75.73 8.15 .65
Dez Bryant (2013-14, DAL) 16 5.625 79.8 9.25 .906
% Difference 11.30% 20.06% 5.38% 13.57% 38.96%
AVERAGE PRIME %: 17.85%
MEDIAN PRIME % 13.57%

Bryant not only belongs in this company, he slightly exceeds that average combined stats of our variable receivers. He'll be given positive checks across the board in terms of durability, consistency, annual improvement, and the ability to find the end zone. We'll factor in both the Average and Median percentages to show a range projection below.

Guaranteed Money
We'll factor in our variable wide receiver's guaranteed dollars to forecast what Dez Bryant could expect.
Player Value True Guarantees % Guaranteed
Calvin Johnson $113,455,000 $46,755,000 41.2%
Vincent Jackson $55,555,555 $26,000,000 46.8%
Jeremy Maclin $55,000,000 $22,500,000 40.91%
Mike Wallace $60,000,000 $27,000,000 45%
Adjusted Regression: 40.22%
Results

Length of the Contract
Our variable receiver contracts averaged out to 5.5 years. At age 26, it's fair to assume that both Bryant and the Cowboys won't want to take this contract past the age of 30 - so we'll round down to an even 5 year extension.

Value of the Contract
Bryant has overcome a few off-the-field hiccups and has settled into one of the premier receiving targets in the NFL. He broke out in 2012, and followed up with an even better and more consistent 2013 & 2014. He's shown talent, durability, and the ability to score. We'll break out our MEDIAN and AVERAGE figures:

Low Value (HOMETOWN DISCOUNT)
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (3.07%), we're forecasting Bryant as the 3rd highest average paid WR:
5 years, $72,472,156 | $14,494,431 per year | $28,360,684 guaranteed
High Value (MAX-VALUE DEAL)
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage ( 6.87%), we're forecasting Bryant as the 3rd highest average paid WR:
5 years, $75,203,342 | $15,040,668 per year | $31,039,475 guaranteed

We'll split the difference to offer the best-value forecast for Bryant's next contract:
Spotrac's Prediction: 5 years, $73,837,749

Average Salary:  $14,767,550

Guaranteed Money:  $29,000,000



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