One of the more interesting scenarios brought forward in the 2013 free agency season concerned Steelers wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, who received a restricted offer sheet from the New England Patriots only to see it matched, keeping him in Pittsburgh another year. A recent article from Erik Frenz at Bleacher Report classifies Sanders as a target for a long-term extension, so we'll follow suit by placing him in our forecast formula. We'll compare Sanders financially and statistically among a variety of other wide receivers to determine where he stands currently as he approaches the negotiating table.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
|Robert Meachem||4||$25.9 million||$6,475,000||27|
|Pierre Garcon||5||$42.5 million||$8,500,000||25|
|Stevie Johnson||5||$36.25 million||$7,250,000||25|
|Santonio Holmes||5||$45 million||$9,000,000||27|
Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
View the list of Top Average Paid Wide Receivers in the NFL
Because Sanders (26) is younger/older than our variables at the times of their signings, we'll adjust the above contracts up/down to his age by adding/subtracting from the overall years to make each variable player 26 years old. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Player||Games||Receptions||Rec Yards||REC Yards/Game||REC TD|
|Robert Meachem (2010-11,,NO)||16||42||628||39.5||5.5|
|Pierre Garcon (2010-11, IND)||15||68.5||865.6||57.5||6|
|Stevie Johson (2010-11, BUF)||16||79||1038.5||64.59||8.5|
|Santonio Holmes (2008-09, PIT)||15.5||67||1034.6||66.35||5|
|Emmanuel Sanders (2011-12, PIT)||13.5||38||522.45||32.6||1.5|
|OVERALL PRIME %||-42.91%|
|Player||Value||True Guarantees||% Guaranteed|
Length of the Contract
The going length of a sophomore wide receiver contract age 26 or greater has been 5 years. There's no reason to believe Sanders will get a 6th, especially with durability concerns. We'll use 5 years for our forecast.
Value of the Contract
Sanders' statistical comparisons was one of the lowest in Premium forecast history. He's just not held up to be a premier #1 receiver on the field to date. Our BASE regression of contracts for receivers in his age/talent class left us with an $7.9M/year starting point. Once we added in a negative prime percentage of 42.91%, the following forecast can be determined:
• Guaranteed: $6,063,546 (26.8%)