Contract Projection: Blake Griffin

Contract Projection: Blake Griffin
Untitled Document

Contract Projection: Blake Griffin

On July 11, 2012 Blake Griffin and the Los Angeles Clippers agreed upon a 5 year $95 million maximum rookie scale extension. When calculating the value for the first year in the extension the maximum salaries in that year must be known, which are based on a percentage of the defined cap. The 2013 cap will not be determined until the offseason because it is based upon the NBA's BRI, Basketball Related Income. The following is a table, detailed from Larry Koon's CBA FAQ, of the league-wide maximum salaries:

Years in NBA Defined maximum salary 2011-12 2012-13
0 - 6 25% of cap $12,922,194 $13,668,750
7 - 9 30% of cap $15,506,632 $16,402,500
10+ 35% of cap $18,091,071 $19,136,250

Blake Griffin's extension begins in 2013, so once the cap is determined Griffin's 5 year salaries can be calculated. The reported $95 million was based on the potential that Griffin achieves the 30% of cap value based on the 2012-13 maximum salary (with raises up to 7.5% of the salary in the first season of the extension), which Derrick Rose earned in 2012. Rose's current contract is 5 year, $94,314,672 because the 30% maximum salary value for 2012-2013 is $16,402,552 (was eligible by being named NBA MVP in 2010-2011).

You might be asking how does a player become eligible for a 30% maximum salary? There are three possible ways for a player to become eligible defined by Koon's CBA FAQ: 1) Named to the All-NBA First, Second or Third team at least twice, 2) Voted as a starter in the All-Star game at least twice, OR 3) Named the NBA Most Valuable Player at least once.

Derrick Rose became eligible for the 30% of cap value by being named NBA MVP in 2010-2011. Because of Rose's achievement and caliber there was an updated provision in the new CBA called the "5th Year 30% Max Criteria," also known as the "The Derrick Rose Rule."

So where does Griffin stand as far as his potenial maximum rookie extension? Griffin made himself eligible for the 30% maximum salary in 2013-2014 due to the fact that he was voted as an All Star starter for his second straight year (option #2). Our research team decided to project Griffin's salaries for his upcoming 5 year contract based on the 30% maximum, but instead of using the $16.4 million 2012-13 value, we've projected the 2013-2014 value by keeping the same rate of increase that happened from 2011-2012 to 2012-2013 (an increase of 5.77%). When doing so, the estimated 30% of cap maximum salary for 2013-2014 would be approximately $17,348,924.

Projected Salary Values
Year Value
2013 $17,348,924
2014 $18,650,093
2015 $19,955,600
2016 $21,252,714
2017 $22,549,129
Derrick Rose's maximum rookie scale extension was 5 years, $94.3 million, based on the 30% maximum salary of $16,402,500. Depending on how much the cap increases (or decreases) by, Blake Griffin could receive around $99.7 million over five years.
5 years, $99,756,460