Contract Forecast: Lance Stephenson

Contract Forecast: Lance Stephenson
Untitled Document

Contract Forecast: Lance Stephenson

  • submit to reddit
  • comment

With the Indiana Pacers now eliminated from the NBA Playoffs, the biggest conversation for the Pacers is will the retain Lance Stephenson and how much a team is willing to pay for him. Stephenson's antics during the Miami Heat-Indiana Pacers Eastern Conference Finals has seemed to "lower his stock" some. It has been reported that Stephenson wants somewhere in the ballpark of $10 million per year, while some in the media are pointing towards the $8/$9 million per year area.

We decided to put Lance Stephenson's numbers to the test by comparing his statistics with other shooting guards - antics left aside - to see what he could be worth when signing his next contract. Not only did we focus on specific statistical categories, we strictly used the second contract signed by comparable players, as this is what Lance Stephenson will currently be looking for.

Comparable Shooting Guards
To determine a more likely starting point for our numbers, we'll perform a linear regression of each contract breakdown listed below.
Player Length Value Avg. Salary
Joe Johnson
5
$67,441,887
$13,488,377
Dwyane Wade
3
$43,231,743
$14,410,581
Eric Gordon
4
$58,365,583
$14,591,396
James Harden
5
$78,782,188
$15,756,438
DeMar DeRozan
4
$38,000,000
$9,500,000
Andre Iguodala
6
$80,500,000
$13,416,667
Marcus Thornton
4
$31,150,000
$7,787,500
Arron Afflalo
5
$36,712,500
$7,342,500
Manu Ginobili
6
$52,000,001
$8,666,667
Richard Hamilton
7
$64,312,500
$9,187,500
J.J. Redick
3
$19,690,000
$6,563,333
Kevin Martin
5
$53,000,025
$10,600,005
Averages 4.75 $51,932,202 $10,942,580

Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.

View the list of Top Average Paid Shooting Guards in the NBA

Initial results, strictly based on contractual terms, determines a 4 year, $43.5 million contract for Lance Stephenson.

Length Value Avg. Salary (slope)
4 $43,535,862 $10,883,965

Statistical Analyzations, Prime Percentage
Now let's analyze these players statistically in the year prior to signing their most recent contract by comparing Minutes per Game, Field Goal %, Three Point %, Free Throw % and Points per Game between our variables and Stephenson.
Player MPG FG% 3P% FT% PPG
Joe Johnson (2003-2004 & 2004-2005, ATL)
40.1
0.445
0.405
0.750
16.9
Wade (2005-2006 & 2006-2007, MIA)
38.3
0.493
0.219
0.793
27.3
Eric Gordon (2009-2010 thru 2011-2012, LAC/NOH)
36.6
0.450
0.360
0.784
19.5
James Harden (2010-2011 & 2011-2012, OKC)
28.7
0.462
0.369
0.844
14.2
DeMar DeRozan (2011-2012 & 2012-2013, TOR)
36.0
0.435
0.274
0.822
17.5
Andre Iguodala (2006-2007 & 2007-2008, PHI)
39.9
0.452
0.323
0.773
19.1
Marcus Thornton (2009-2010 & 2010-2011, SAC)
25.0
0.443
0.371
0.801
13.6
Arron Afflalo (2009-2010 & 2010-2011, DEN)
30.1
0.482
0.429
0.805
10.5
Manu Ginobili (2002-2003 & 2003-2004, SAS)
25.3
0.425
0.354
0.778
10.4
Richard Hamilton (2001-2002 & 2002-2003, WAS/DET)
33.4
0.440
0.298
0.855
19.8
J.J. Redick (2008-2009 & 2009-2010, ORL)
20.0
0.423
0.393
0.863
8.0
Kevin Martin (2006-2007 & 2007-2008, SAC)
35.7
0.465
0.391
0.856
21.7
Averages 32.43 0.451 0.349 0.810 16.54
Lance Stephenson (2011-2012 & 2012-2013, IND)
32.2
0.478
0.343
0.689
11.3
% Difference -0.69% 5.93% -1.67% -14.97% -31.69%
AVERAGE PRIME % -8.6%
MEDIAN PRIME % -1.7%

It is obvious that Stephenson is below the average comparables, except for his field goal percentage. While Stephenson is relatively close in minutes per game, his points per game was substantially lower than the comparable shooting guards. However, Stephenson's production over the last three years has been increasing from year-to-year, showing growth in his game. Therefore, we will incorporate the Median Prime % rather than the Average Prime to compensate for this growth.

Results

Length of the Contract
Lance Stephenson has proven that he can be a contributor to a team and has the ability to be a game changer. While some of the comparables are pre-2011 CBA and/or were maximum contract signees, others were not; so a four year contract seems like a viable option for the Pacers or some other team looking to lock Stephenson down for the foreseeable future.

Value of the Contract
Stephenson's production that has done nothing but increase each year for the past three years has proven his abilities on the court and as an asset to his team. While Stephenson has said he would like an approximate $10 million AAV, media have been reporting it could be more in the $8/$9 million range because of his antics. Our forecast will remain strictly based on comparable player contracts and statistics and with the Median Prime % incorporated, Stephenson's goal of $10 million AAV is not out of the question.

Spotrac's Forecast: 4 years, $42,795,000

Average Salary:  $10,698,750


Follow Spotrac on Twitter, and keep up with even more on Facebook.




Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipisicing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat.…
I'm gonna be sticky!