Assessing Dwyane Wade's Market Value

Assessing Dwyane Wade's Market Value
Untitled Document

Dwyane Wade currently has an offer of 2 year $40 million from the Miami Heat on the table. He reportedly has an offer from Denver of 2 years $50+ million. Wade's camp has said that he is looking for something $20+ million per year in this new contract. Is Dwyane Wade worth $20+ million a year even though he is 34 years old and at the tail end of his career?

Using comparable shooting guards who have recently signed contracts with an annual average around $20 million and their associated statistics two years prior to signing those contracts we will look to see if Wade is truly worth the $20+ million he is seeking.

Comparable Shooting Guards
Player Length Value Avg. Salary
DeMar DeRozan 5 $145,000,000 $29,000,000
Bradley Beal 5 $127,171,313 $25,434,262
Nicolas Batum 5 $120,000,000 $24,000,000
Jimmy Butler 5 $92,339,878 $18,467,975
Wesley Matthews 4 $70,060,026 $17,515,006
Klay Thompson 5 $68,979,450 $17,244,862
Averages 4.7 $103,925,111 $21,943,684
Length Value Avg. Salary (slope)
4 $96,902,238 $24,225,560
Statistical Analyzations
Now let's analyze these players statistically over their careers by showing the averages for Games/Seasson,Minutes/Game, Field Goal %, 3-Point %, Free Throw %, Assists/Game, Turnovers/Game, and Points/Game.

Then, to assess how well the player was performing prior to signing their respective contract, we'll show the averages of these statistics two years prior to their signing date. This will give us a "Prime Percentage" for each player, providing us with a snapshot for how well that player was performing when the contract was signed in relation to his overall career.
Player GM/S MIN/G FG% 3pt% FT% AST/G TO/G Pt/G
DeMar DeRozan
(14-15/15-16, TOR)
69 35.5 0.432 0.317 0.843 3.8 2.3 22
Bradley Beal
(14-15/15-16, WAS)
59 32.3 0.438 0.398 0.775 3 2 16.3
Nicolas Batum
(14-15/15-16, CHA)
70.5 34.2 0.415 0.338 0.852 5.3 2.4 12.1
Jimmy Butler
(13-14/14-15, CHI)
66 38.7 0.434 0.326 0.806 2.9 1.5 16.5
Wesley Matthews
(13-14/14-15, POR)
71 33.8 0.444 0.391 0.809 2.4 1.3 16.2
Klay Thompson
(13-14/14-15, GSW)
79 33.7 0.454 0.428 0.844 2.6 1.8 20
Averages 69.08 34.7 0.44 0.37 0.82 3.33 1.88 17.18
Dwyane Wade 68 31.1 0.463 0.247 0.781 4.7 3 20.1
% Difference -1.57% -10.37% 6.15% -32.58% -4.93% 41.00% -59.29% 16.97%
MEDIAN PRIME % -3.25%
AVERAGE PRIME % -5.58%

It is obvious as Wade ages his comparable statistics are slightly lower than the youth listed above. However, Wade still can produce on the court and contribute to any team he may sign with.

To determine the value for Wade, we'll split the difference between the median and average prime (-4.4%).

Results

Length of the Contract
Wade is seeking a 2 or 3 year contract but has been reportedly offered a 2 year from Miami and Denver.


Value of the Contract
Wade is seeking a $20+ million annual average contract. His statistical production shows that he comes in slightly lower than the average. Therefore, his average contract value will be reduced slightly lower than the regression average from the comparable players.

Spotrac's Prediction: 2 years, $46,400,000

Average Salary: $23,200,000

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