While many franchise-tagged players were able to garner long-term contracts out of their respective teams, Wes Welker was unable to do so. In fact, rumors were swirling that discussions barely existed surrounding the opportunity to extend Welker's stay in New England. The Patriots have notoriously let confrontational situations fall by the wayside, and in doing so have made mistakes. But another AFC Championship in 2011 means giving them the benefit of the doubt, even in terms of Welker. The Patriots are simply using the tools that the CBA has allotted them, including the option for a franchise tag. That being said, it only seems fair to assess the current state of Welker, and provide a formulaic prediction for the long-term contract he should have signed this offseason.
To analyze Welker, we'll compare statistics over his career as a wide receiver (2007-2011) against other receivers of comparable age and quality. We'll start by listing these receivers, their most recently signed contract, and the age they were when signing.
To analyze Welker, we'll compare statistics over his career as a wide receiver (2007-2011) against other receivers of comparable age and quality. We'll start by listing these receivers, their most recently signed contract, and the age they were when signing.
Comparable Wide Receivers
| Player | Length | Value | Avg. Salary | Age When Signed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 5 | $55.55 million | $11.11 million | 29 |
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | $47.3 million | $9.46 million | 26 |
| Santonio Holmes | 5 | $45 million | $9 million | 27 |
| Anquan Boldin | 4 | $28 million | $7 million | 29 |
| Roddy White | 6 | $48 million | $8 million | 27 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | $17.5 million | $5.83 million | 33 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | $37.5 million | $9.43 million | 33 |
Computing a linear regression of the years and value of these contracts gives us a starting point for a Welker deal:
| Length | Value | Average Salary |
|---|---|---|
| 4.57 | $35,309,941 | $8,827,485 |
Statistical Analyzations
Now let's analyze these players statistically over their careers by showing Games/Season, Receptions/Season, Yards/Season, Yards/Game, and TD/Season. We'll also include statistics for the two years prior to that player signing his contract, to reflect a "prime" state he may have been in.
| Vincent Jackson (TB) | Career | Last 2 Seasons | Prime % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
||||
| Games/Season | 10.5 | 13 | 81% | |
| Receptions/Season | 74 | 38.9 | 190% | |
| Rec Yards/Season | 1354 | 680 | 199% | |
| Receiving Yards/Game | 59.35 | 52.2 | 114% | |
| Receiving TD/Season | 6 | 5.2 | 115% | |
| 140% | ||||
| Brandon Marshall (CHI) | Career | Last 2 Seasons | Prime % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
||||
| Games/Season | 14.5 | 15.1 | 96% | |
| Receptions/Season | 93.5 | 82.3 | 114% | |
| Rec Yards/Season | 1067 | 1041.2 | 102% | |
| Receiving Yards/Game | 73.55 | 68.6 | 107% | |
| Receiving TD/Season | 6.5 | 5.7 | 114% | |
| 107% | ||||
| Santonio Holmes (NYJ) | Career | Last 2 Seasons | Prime % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
||||
| Games/Season | 14 | 14.6 | 96% | |
| Receptions/Season | 65.6 | 56.3 | 117% | |
| Rec Yards/Season | 997 | 872.5 | 114% | |
| Receiving Yards/Game | 70.6 | 59.5 | 119% | |
| Receiving TD/Season | 5.5 | 5.7 | 96% | |
| 108% | ||||
| Anquan Boldin (BAL) | Career | Last 2 Seasons | Prime % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
||||
| Games/Season | 13 | 13.8 | 94% | |
| Receptions/Season | 86.5 | 78.6 | 110% | |
| Rec Yards/Season | 1031 | 1027 | 100% | |
| Receiving Yards/Game | 77.4 | 74 | 105% | |
| Receiving TD/Season | 7.5 | 6 | 125% | |
| 107% | ||||
| Roddy White (ATL) | Career | Last 2 Seasons | Prime % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
||||
| Games/Season | 16 | 13 | 123 | |
| Receptions/Season | 85 | 75.71 | 112% | |
| Rec Yards/Season | 1292 | 1053.1 | 123% | |
| Receiving Yards/Game | 80.75 | 65.8 | 123% | |
| Receiving TD/Season | 6.5 | 6.42 | 101% | |
| 116% | ||||
| Reggie Wayne (IND) | Career | Last 2 Seasons | Prime % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
||||
| Games/Season | 16 | 15.7 | 102% | |
| Receptions/Season | 93 | 78.3 | 119% | |
| Rec Yards/Season | 1157.3 | 1064 | 109% | |
| Receiving Yards/Game | 72.35 | 67.7 | 107% | |
| Receiving TD/Season | 5 | 6.63 | 75% | |
| 102% | ||||
| Steve Smith (CAR) | Career | Last 2 Seasons | Prime % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
||||
| Games/Season | 15 | 13.6 | 110% | |
| Receptions/Season | 62.5 | 68.9 | 91% | |
| Rec Yards/Season | 974 | 1012.4 | 96% | |
| Receiving Yards/Game | 63.35 | 68.1 | 93% | |
| Receiving TD/Season | 4.5 | 5.9 | 76% | |
| 93% | ||||
| Wes Welker (NE) | Career | Last 2 Seasons | Prime % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
||||
| Games/Season | 15.5 | 15.4 | 101% | |
| Receptions/Season | 104 | 110.8 | 94% | |
| Rec Yards/Season | 1208.5 | 1221 | 99% | |
| Receiving Yards/Game | 77.3 | 79.42 | 97% | |
| Receiving TD/Season | 8 | 6.2 | 129% | |
| 104% | ||||
What we find here is that with the exception of Carolina's Steve Smith, all of these receivers were playing their best football prior to signing their latest contract. Welker, Holmes, Boldin, Marshall and Wayne show slight increases, proving consistency over their careers, while Jackson and White show major jumps prior to their deals. What we've determined here is that Welker belongs in value discussions with the majority of these receivers. We'll carry the 104% prime for Welker through to our results.
Now let's compare the actual prime statistics (two years prior to signings) with Welker's last two seasons to show where Welker falls in this list.
Now let's compare the actual prime statistics (two years prior to signings) with Welker's last two seasons to show where Welker falls in this list.
| Receptions | Last 2 Seasons | Welker | % Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall | 93.5 | 104 | 10% |
| Wayne | 93 | 104 | 11% |
| Boldin | 86.5 | 104 | 17% |
| White | 85 | 104 | 18% |
| Jackson | 74 | 104 | 29% |
| Holmes | 65.6 | 104 | 37% |
| Smith | 62.5 | 104 | 40% |
| Average Difference | 23% | ||
| Yards | Last 2 Seasons | Welker | % Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson | 1354 | 1208.5 | -12% |
| White | 1292 | 1208.5 | -7% |
| Wayne | 1157 | 1208.5 | 4% |
| Marshall | 1067 | 1208.5 | 12% |
| Boldin | 1031 | 1208.5 | 15% |
| Holmes | 997 | 1208.5 | 18% |
| Smith | 974 | 1208.5 | 19% |
| Average Difference | 7% | ||
| Yards/Game | Last 2 Seasons | Welker | % Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| White | 80.75 | 77.3 | -4% |
| Boldin | 77.4 | 77.3 | 0% |
| Marshall | 73.55 | 77.3 | 5% |
| Wayne | 72.35 | 77.3 | 6% |
| Holmes | 70.6 | 77.3 | 9% |
| Smith | 63.35 | 77.3 | 18% |
| Jackson | 59.35 | 77.3 | 23% |
| Average Difference | 8% | ||
| Touchdowns | Last 2 Seasons | Welker | % Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boldin | 7.5 | 8 | 6% |
| Marshall | 6.5 | 8 | 19% |
| White | 6.5 | 8 | 19% |
| Jackson | 6 | 8 | 25% |
| Holmes | 5.5 | 8 | 31% |
| Wayne | 5 | 8 | 38% |
| Smith | 4.5 | 8 | 44% |
| Average Difference | 26% | ||
A quick summation shows that Welker has produced 16% better statistically over the two years leading up to his contract than the variable receivers. Again, this is a number we'll carry through to our results.
Results
Length of the Contract
At age 31, durability is certainly a question. But Welker has average 15.4 games per season over his career, and that's enough to offer him the contract length he deserves. Our averages bring us to a 4.57 year contract, but our evaluation of players over 30, and gut instincts say 4 years is the bar here.
Value of the Contract
The name of the game with elite contracts today is the guaranteed money. While years and overall value are viable negotiating points, the struggle seems to be how much to front load, and how much to guarantee - especially with positional players in high-risk of injury like Welker. Our linear regression provides us a $8.82 million average salary. With a 20% upgrade based on prime and statistical performance (Welker's main receiving statistics are higher than our variable receivers in all cases), the salary increased to $10.59 million per year.
At age 31, durability is certainly a question. But Welker has average 15.4 games per season over his career, and that's enough to offer him the contract length he deserves. Our averages bring us to a 4.57 year contract, but our evaluation of players over 30, and gut instincts say 4 years is the bar here.
Value of the Contract
The name of the game with elite contracts today is the guaranteed money. While years and overall value are viable negotiating points, the struggle seems to be how much to front load, and how much to guarantee - especially with positional players in high-risk of injury like Welker. Our linear regression provides us a $8.82 million average salary. With a 20% upgrade based on prime and statistical performance (Welker's main receiving statistics are higher than our variable receivers in all cases), the salary increased to $10.59 million per year.
Spotrac's Prediction: 4 years, $42,371,930
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