Current NFL QB True Value Statistic
Untitled Document Untitled Document

Current NFL QB True Value Statistic

Through four weeks of the NFL season now, it should come as no surprise that quarterback play across the league is the main focus. The record-breaking starts from Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have their respective cities thinking February, while many more (Philip Rivers, Jake Locker, Jay Cutler) are producing above average starts under the radar. The following table illustrates the 32 starting quarterbacks (on average) through 4 weeks of the NFL season.


Spotrac's True Value Statistic
Our good friends at Pro Football Focus publish weekly cumulative ratings by position, combining unique and relevant stats to determine a statistical production rating. We'll assess the most recent ratings in comparison to the player's 2013 salary cap figure to determine a current and unique "Value Rating" among the current starting quarterbacks. This rating will be used to calculate our True Value Statistic for each player.


The Geekness (Math) Behind the Stat
To calculate our value rating statistic:

  1. We've found the median of each quarterback's cap figures ($7.65 million).
  2. From there, we find the percent difference between the player's cap and the median cap.
  3. We then multiply this percent difference by the average of all our quarterback's PFF statistical ratings (1.296875).
  4. The result is the PFF Rating the player should be performing at to meet "value".
  5. Finally we determine the difference between the player's actual PFF rating and his value-based PFF rating to land on our final statistic.
2013 NFL Quarterback True Value Statistic
Player 2013 Cap Value Rating True Value
Eli Manning (NYG) $20,850,000 2.24 -2.34
Matthew Stafford (DET) $17,820,000 1.72 4.48
Peyton Manning (DEN) $17,500,000 1.67 17.13
Drew Brees (NO) $17,400,000 1.65 8.25
Tom Brady (NE) $13,800,000 1.04 -1.24
Philip Rivers (SD) $13,776,667 1.04 11.76
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) $13,595,000 1.01 0.09
Sam Bradford (STL) $12,595,000 0.84 -6.74
Michael Vick (PHI) $12,200,000 0.77 0.73
Aaron Rodgers (GB) $12,000,000 0.74 4.36
Tony Romo (DAL) $11,818,833 0.71 3.69
Matt Schaub (HOU) $10,750,000 0.53 2.07
Jay Cutler (CHI) $10,370,000 0.46 3.04
Josh Freeman (TB) $9,760,000 0.36 -2.56
Matt Ryan (ATL) $9,600,000 0.33 11.67
Alex Smith (KC) $8,500,000 0.14 -0.74
Joe Flacco (BAL) $6,800,000 -0.14 -6.96
Cam Newton (CAR) $6,006,818 -0.28 2.78
Andrew Luck (IND) $5,024,545 -0.45 10.45
Robert Griffin III (WAS) $4,799,795 -0.48 -2.32
Carson Palmer (ARI) $4,000,000 -0.62 4.32
Matt Flynn (OAK) $3,875,000 -0.64 -3.46
Matt Cassel (MIN) $3,700,000 -0.67 -3.03
Blaine Gabbert (JAC) $3,273,176 -0.74 -5.06
Ryan Tannehill (MIA) $2,879,205 -0.81 4.41
Jake Locker (TEN) $3,432,546 -0.71 8.81
E.J. Manuel (BUF) $1,615,509 -1.02 -10.08
Andy Dalton (CIN) $1,422,054 -1.06 -5.54
Colin Kaepernick (SF) $1,397,532 -1.06 -8.34
Geno Smith (NYJ) $912,655 -1.14 -3.96
Brian Hoyer (CLE) $715,000 -1.18 0.88
Russell Wilson (SEA) $681,085 -1.18 1.88
Looking Forward
Expiring Contracts

 

Stat Disclaimer
All ratings were derived from Pro Football Focus' Premium Stats Series; an immensely useful, easy to assess, and quickly updated set of unique NFL data. Please take a moment to click around and consider joining if you haven't already.

Want Even More?
Follow Spotrac and Spotrac Premium on Twitter, and keep up with even more on our Facebook Page.

Recent Premium Reports

  • NFL Free Agent Spending Breakdowns
    We're 1 month, $2 billion, and 274 contracts into the 2014 NFL Free Agency Season, a reasonable time to begin breaking down the figures by Team Spending, Positional Spending, and guaranteed dollars. This and more: » View this Report
  • Contract Forecast: DeSean Jackson
    His release from the Eagles last week opened many eyes across the league. Now DeSean Jackson is the most coveted free agent weapon left on the market. We'll assess a value prediction for what his next contract might look like. » View this Report
  • Contract Forecast: Andy Dalton
    One of the bigger question marks heading into the 2014 NFL League year is the long-term fate of Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton, whose rookie contract is set to expire after the season. We'll assess Dalton's value for a contract extension this offseason. » View this Report
  • 2014 NFL Positional Cap Spending
    An in-depth look at how each NFL team is spending their 2014 cap dollars positionally, including total dollars, percent of cap space, the average player cap hit, and much more. » View this Report

» Visit the Research Center

» Visit the Research Center

» Visit the Research Center

» Visit the Research Center

» Visit the Research Center