We'll evaluate the 28 year old Jones-Drew statistically, comparing him to other backs of a similar age and production to generate a forecast for his current value going forward.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
View the list of Top Average Paid Running Backs in the NFL
Because Jones-Drew (28) is younger than Jackson at the time of his signing, we'll adjust the above contract down to his age by adding to the overall years. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Player||Games||Rush Att/G||Rush Yds/G||Rush TD/G||FUM/G||REC/G||REC YDS/G||REC TD/G|
|Reggie Bush (2011-12, MIA)||15.5||14.32||67.19||.39||.26||2.52||18.97||.1|
|DeAngelo Williams (2009-10, CAR)||15.5||15.95||77.79||.42||.21||2.11||16.47||0|
|Frank Gore (2009-10, SF)||15.5||17.28||78.92||.52||.32||3.92||34.32||.2|
|Steven Jackson (2011-12, STL)||15.5||16.68||70.55||.29||.06||2.58||21.1||.03|
|Maurice Jones-Drew (2011-12, JAC)||11||19.5||91.82||.41||.36||2.59||20.91||.18|
|OVERALL PRIME %||16%|
Length of the Contract
At 28, MJD is in the last year of "significant contracts" for running backs based on our previous numbers. Our base mathematics averaged out to a 4 year contract, so we'll stay with that.
Value of the Contract
Running backs are as tough to predict as any position in the league right now, as their average pay has decreased significantly over the past 3 seasons. But Maurice Jones-Drew has been durable, and consistent - albeit in a losing franchise, and his value in free agency should remain feasbily strong.