He's got 11,603 yards, and 79 touchdowns through 41 games in his young career. But with just 19 wins, the measure on where Carolina Panthers' quarterback Cam Newton stands in terms of status is tough to gauge. The Panther's have quietly become a contender in 2013, in large part to the consistently strong play from Newton, and with his $22 million contract set to expire after 2014, the discussions regarding an extension are forthcoming.
Our forecast for Cam will be unlike any we've done prior, as his unique skill set lends itself to varying evaluation methods. Newton will be the first of the current generation of "young mobile quarterbacks" to be granted a long-term contract. Not since Michael Vick in 2004 has a quarterback with the ability to pass and throw at an elite level been considered for a maximum pay-day, and the game has changed immensely since.
To compensate for this, we'll revise the statistics used in our analysis to include Rushing Yards, and Total Touchdowns (Passing + Throwing). Additionally, we'll take a look at the Top 10 rushing quarterbacks since 2011 to find where Cam falls solely based on his run game.
The following is the full report, predicting the next contract for the 24 year old Panthers' quarterback.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Guaranteed||Age When Signed|
Related: View the list of Top Average Paid Quarterbacks in the NFL
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
To assess how well the player was performing prior to signing their respective contract, we'll show the averages of these statistics two years prior to their signing date. This will give us a "Prime Percentage" for each player, providing us with a snapshot for how well that player was performing when the contract was signed in relation to his overall career.
|Player||Games/YR||Pass YDS/YR||Comp %/YR||Total TD/YR||INT/G||Rush YDS/YR (50%)|
|Matt Ryan (2011-12, ATL)||16||4448||64.95||32||13||112.5|
|Joe Flacco (2011-12, BAL)||16||3713.5||58.65||23||11||55|
|Matthew Stafford (2011-12, DET)||16||5002.5||61.65||32.5||16.5||102|
|Aaron Rodgers (2008-09, GB)||16||4236||64.15||33.5||10||261.5|
|Cam Newton (2011-12, CAR)||16||3960||58.85||31||14.5||723.5|
|Robert Griffin (WAS)||24||174||1134||7||47.25|
|Terrelle Pryor (OAK)||12||77||559||3||46.58|
|Michael Vick (PHI)||29||172||1229||4||42.38|
|Cam Newton (CAR)||41||316||1713||26||41.78|
|Russell Wilson (SEA)||26||164||884||5||34.00|
|Colin Kaepernick (SF)||25||118||725||7||29.00|
|Tim Tebow (DEN / NYJ)||30||58||762||6||25.40|
|Christian Ponder (MIN)||33||114||628||6||19.03|
|Andrew Luck (IND)||26||103||486||9||18.69|
|Alex Smith (SF / KC)||34||136||576||2||16.94|
At just 24 years old, and having increased his production every year in the league, Newton is on pace to reach a maximum deal with the Panthers in the coming 24 months. We'll keep the length of this forecast at 6 years, the mathematical average.
Value of the Contract
Our initial base contract provided an average salary of just under $15 million per year, a figure that would place him 11th among active quarterbacks. It's no secret that any negotiable increase in this number has to do solely with Cam's efforts in the rushing attack. If Carolina (or other teams) consider this to be as valuable as his respectable passing game, then our 14% Prime increase is merited.