It's been a bumpy road for QB Alex Smith since his #1 overall selection in the 2005 draft, but a "breakout", Pro Bowl year in Kansas City last season has the veteran on the cusp of a long-term extension for the first time in his career.
We'll assess Smith's statistical performances in 2012-13 and compare them to quarterbacks of similar age and production to determine and forecast a possible extension this offseason, should one be offered.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Guaranteed||Age When Signed|
Related: View the list of Top Average Paid Quarterbacks in the NFL
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
To derive the most complete set of production comparisons, we'll use Games/Season, Passing Yards/Game, Completion %/Game, Passing TD/Game, Interceptions/Game.
To assess how well the player was performing prior to signing their respective contract, we'll show the averages of these statistics two years prior to their signing date. The two-year analysis will give us a "Prime Percentage", showing how well that player was performing when the contract was signed in relation to his overall career.
|Player||Games/YR||Pass YDS/G||Comp %/G||PASS TD/G||INT/G|
|Eli Manning (2008-09, NYG)||16||226.8||61.3||1.5||.75|
|Tony Romo (2011-12, DAL)||16||284||65.9||1.84||.9|
|Matt Schaub (2010-11, HOU)||13||263.4||62.7||1.5||.69|
|Jay Cutler (2012-13, CHI)||13||217.5||60.7||1.46||1|
|Alex Smith (2012-13, KC)||12.5||197.3||65.4||1.44||0.48|
|MEDIAN PRIME PERCENTAGE:||-8.57%|
|AVERAGE PRIME PERCENTAGE:||0.82%|
Length of the Contract
At 30 years old, Smith has room to receive a contract in the 6-7 year range. But a sloppy, inconsistent 8 season career to date should be a factor in terms of negotiation. We'll assume a 5 year contract for no other reason than to allow for signing bonus to pro-rate, thus reducing the cap figures accordingly.
Value of the Contract
Our initial base terms brought forth an average annual salary just over $17M a year, a figure that would make him the 8th highest average paid quarterback in footbal. We'll factor in our -8.57% Median Prime Percentage (the lower calculated determining factor) to our base numbers to provide a realistic look at what Smith could be seeing from the Chiefs in the coming months.
It's likely that the Chiefs will wait for and use the Andy Dalton extension as at least a guiding point in their negotiation with Smith - even though the two are VERY dissimilar in terms of style of play (and numbers). Extensions are generally looked at as "what has someone else received lately" in terms of a starting point. Many believe (and to some degree I agree), that it makes more sense to keep Smith on a 2/3 year, high salary contract - rather than go the long-term route that Cutler and Romo recently received. The Chiefs have a fairly strong salary cap model in place for 2014, and heading into 2015 - so it shouldn't be of concern to pinch in areas such as their starting quarterback. Pay more today, placing less risk on tomorrow.