The Spotrac Research team recently compiled a report combining statistical and contractual data to produce an educated prediction of the contract New York Mets third baseman David Wright should be signing in the near future.
The equation uses two statistics, Batting Average (AVG), and On-Base Slugging (OPS). We located two athletes with averages slightly higher and slightly lower in both cases, then compiled their most recent signed contract information. The following is an in-depth look at the process, variables, and our final prediction.
The equation uses two statistics, Batting Average (AVG), and On-Base Slugging (OPS). We located two athletes with averages slightly higher and slightly lower in both cases, then compiled their most recent signed contract information. The following is an in-depth look at the process, variables, and our final prediction.
Batting Average (AVG)
Wright's .303 career batting average places him in proximity with other elite third basemen such as Miguel Cabrera (.316), Chipper Jones (.304), Hanley Ramirez (.303), Alex Rodriguez (.301), and Placido Polanco (.301). Breaking down the contracts for these players, the following information can be derived:
| Player | Career B.A. |
Contract Length |
Contract Value |
Average Salary |
Age Signed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miguel Cabrera |
.316 | 8 | $152,300,000 | $19,037,500 | 25 |
Chipper Jones |
.304 | 3 | $42,000,000 | $14,000,000 | 37 |
Hanley Ramirez |
.303 | 6 | $70,000,000 | $11,666,667 | 25 |
Alex Rodriguez |
.301 | 10 | $275,000,000 | $27,500,000 | 31 |
| Averages | 6.75 | $134,825,000 | $18,051,041 | 29.25 | |
| Linear Regression | 6.75 | $145,800,000 | $21,600,000 | 29.25 | |
Now let's take into account Wright's batting average over just the past 3 years (2010-present), in comparison to his career .313 average. This allows us to loosely gauge if he's in a peak or valley of his career.
David Wright
| Season | Avg. | Career | % Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
||||
| 2010 | 0.283 | |||
| 2011 | 0.254 | |||
| 2012 | 0.354 | |||
| Average | 0.297 | 0.303 | 98% | |
We'll do the same with our variable players comparing the differentiation between the player's batting average 3 years prior to signing with their career batting average.
Miguel Cabrera (8 yrs, $152,300,000)
Chipper Jones (3 yrs, $42,000,000)
Hanley Ramirez (6 yrs, $70,000,000)
Alex Rodriguez (10 yrs, $275,000,000)
| Season | Avg. | Career | % Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 2005 | 0.323 | |||
| 2006 | 0.339 | |||
| 2007 | 0.320 | |||
| Average | 0.327 | 0.317 | 103% | |
Chipper Jones (3 yrs, $42,000,000)
| Season | Avg. | Career | % Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 2006 | 0.324 | |||
| 2007 | 0.337 | |||
| 2008 | 0.364 | |||
| Average | 0.341 | 0.304 | 112% | |
Hanley Ramirez (6 yrs, $70,000,000)
| Season | Avg. | Career | % Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 2006 | 0.292 | |||
| 2007 | 0.332 | |||
| 2008 | 0.301 | |||
| Average | 0.308 | 0.302 | 101% | |
Alex Rodriguez (10 yrs, $275,000,000)
| Season | Avg. | Career | % Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 2005 | 0.321 | |||
| 2006 | 0.290 | |||
| 2007 | 0.314 | |||
| Average | 0.308 | 0.301 | 102% | |
The average age of our variable players (29.25) compiles to the current age of David Wright (29), so the average salary ($21,600,000) should be a viable estimate to carry through. However, despite jaw-dropping numbers thus far in 2012, Wright's 3-year scope shows he's performing beneath his career average. Our variable players were on average were batting 104.5% better than their career numbers. We'll adjust our average salary accordingly in light of this differentation.
| Years | Avg. Salary | 3 yr B.A. Adj. | Adj. Salary | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.75 | $21,600,000 | -6% | $20,304,000 | $137,052,000 |
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS)
Wright's .895 career OPS places him in proximity with Miguel Cabrera (.948), Chipper Jones (.933), Hanley Ramirez (.877), and Kevin Youkilis (.872). Using a straight linear regression on the contracts signed by these four players, the following information can be derived:
| Player | Career OPS |
Contract Length |
Contract Value |
Average Salary |
Age Signed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Cabrera |
.948 | 8 | $152,300,000 | $19,037,500 | 25 |
| Chipper Jones |
.933 | 3 | $42,000,000 | $14,000,000 | 37 |
| Hanley Ramirez |
.877 | 6 | $70,000,000 | $11,666,667 | 25 |
Kevin Youkilis |
.872 | 4 | $41,125,000 | $10,281,250 | 30 |
| Averages | 5.25 | $76,356,250 | $14,544,047 | 29.25 | |
| Linear Regression | 5.25 | $81,013,800 | $15,431,200 | 29.25 | |
Now let's take into account Wright's OPS over just the past 3 years (2010-present), in comparison to his career .895 OPS to provide a recent snapshot of his performance.
David Wright
| Season | OPS | Career | % Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 2010 | 0.857 | |||
| 2011 | 0.772 | |||
| 2012 | 1.007 | |||
| Average | 0.878 | 0.895 | 98.1% | |
We'll do the same with our variable players comparing the differentiation between the player's OPS 3 years prior to signing with their career OPS.
Miguel Cabrera (8 yrs, $152,300,000)
Chipper Jones (3 yrs, $42,000,000)
Hanley Ramirez (6 yrs, $70,000,000)
Kevin Youkilis (4 yrs, $41,250,000)
| Season | OPS | Career | % Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 2005 | 0.946 | |||
| 2007 | 0.998 | |||
| 2008 | 0.966 | |||
| Average | 0.970 | 0.948 | 102% | |
Chipper Jones (3 yrs, $42,000,000)
| Season | OPS | Career | % Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 2006 | 1.005 | |||
| 2007 | 1.029 | |||
| 2008 | 1.044 | |||
| Average | 1.026 | 0.933 | 109% | |
Hanley Ramirez (6 yrs, $70,000,000)
| Season | OPS | Career | % Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 2006 | 0.833 | |||
| 2007 | 0.948 | |||
| 2008 | 0.940 | |||
| Average | 0.907 | 0.877 | 103% | |
Kevin Youkilis (4 yrs, $41,250,000)
| Season | OPS | Career | % Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 2006 | 0.810 | |||
| 2007 | 0.843 | |||
| 2008 | 0.959 | |||
| Average | 0.870 | 0.872 | 99.7% | |
Again the variable players used here average out to an age of 29.25, so the resulting numbers should ouput properly with 29-year-old David Wright. But the three-year snapshot again shows Wright under-performing his career numbers. Our variable players nearly all exceeded their career percentages, averaging 103.4%. We'll adjust our numbers to account for the differentiation.
| Years | Avg. Salary | 3 yr OPS Adj. | Adj. Salary | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.25 | $15,431,200 | -5% | $14,659,640 | $76,963,110 |
Results
Length of the Contract
Our two statistical breakdowns result in average lengths of 6.75 and 5.25, and average age signed of 29.25 for both. With David Wright currently 29 years old, we'll split the difference and predict a 6 year contract.
Value of the Contract
The predicted value of the contract is generated based on the Average Annual Linear-Regressed Salaries, the Percent Difference for each Statistic, and the previously determined length.
Our two statistical breakdowns result in average lengths of 6.75 and 5.25, and average age signed of 29.25 for both. With David Wright currently 29 years old, we'll split the difference and predict a 6 year contract.
Value of the Contract
The predicted value of the contract is generated based on the Average Annual Linear-Regressed Salaries, the Percent Difference for each Statistic, and the previously determined length.
| Value Based on Batting Average | ||
|---|---|---|
| Length | Average Salary | Value |
| 6.75 | $20,304,000 | $137,052,000 |
| Value Based on On-Base Plus Slugging | ||
| Length | Average Salary | Value |
| 5.25 | $14,659,640 | $76,963,110 |
Spotrac's Prediction: 6 years, $107,007,555
