The Spotrac Research team recently compiled a report combining statistical and contractual data to produce an educated prediction of the contract Texas Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton should be signing in the near future.
The equation uses two statistics, Batting Average (AVG), and On-Base Slugging (OPS). We located two athletes with averages slightly higher and slightly lower in both cases, then compiled their most recent signed contract information. The following is an in-depth look at the process, variables, and our final prediction.
The equation uses two statistics, Batting Average (AVG), and On-Base Slugging (OPS). We located two athletes with averages slightly higher and slightly lower in both cases, then compiled their most recent signed contract information. The following is an in-depth look at the process, variables, and our final prediction.
Batting Average (AVG)
Hamilton's .313 career batting average places him in proximity with Ryan Braun (.312), Matt Holliday (.313), Matt Kemp (.296), and Carl Crawford (.293). Breaking down the contracts for these players, the following information can be derived:
| Player | Length | Value | Avg. Salary | Age | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
Braun | 5 | $105,000,000 | $21,000,000 | 28 |
 |
Kemp | 8 | $160,000,000 | $20,000,000 | 27 |
 |
Holliday | 7 | $120,000,000 | $17,142,857 | 30 |
 |
Crawford | 7 | $142,000,000 | $20,285,714 | 29 |
| Averages | 6.75 | $131,750,000 | $19,518,518 | 27.25 | |
The ages noted above are the age of the player when signing his contract. Hamilton is 31 years old now, so let's adjust these numbers to render as if the players were signing at age 31.
| Player | Length | Avg. Salary | Adjusted Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Braun | 2 | $21,000,000 | $42,000,000 |
|
Kemp | 4 | $20,000,000 | $80,000,000 |
|
Holliday | 6 | $17,142,857 | $102,857,142 |
|
Crawford | 5 | $20,285,714 | $101,428,570 |
| Linear Regression Projected Salary | $18,867,725 | |||
Now let's take into account Hamilton's batting average over just the past 3 years (2010-present), in comparison to his career .313 average. This allows us to loosely gauge if he's in a peak or valley of his career.
Josh Hamilton
| Season | Avg. | Career | % Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
||||
| 2010 | 0.359 | |||
| 2011 | 0.298 | |||
| 2012 | 0.366 | |||
| Average | 0.341 | 0.313 | 108% | |
We'll do the same with our variable players comparing the differentiation between the player's batting average 3 years prior to signing with their career batting average.
Ryan Braun (5 yrs, $105,000,000)
Matt Holliday (7 yrs, $120,000,000)
Matt Kemp (8 yrs, $160,000,000)
Carl Crawford (7 yrs, $142,000,000)
| Season | Avg. | Career | % Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 2008 | 0.285 | |||
| 2009 | 0.320 | |||
| 2010 | 0.304 | |||
| Average | 0.303 | 0.311 | 97.1% | |
Matt Holliday (7 yrs, $120,000,000)
| Season | Avg. | Career | % Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 2007 | 0.340 | |||
| 2008 | 0.321 | |||
| 2009 | 0.317 | |||
| Average | 0.341 | 0.313 | 108.6% | |
Matt Kemp (8 yrs, $160,000,000)
| Season | Avg. | Career | % Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 2009 | 0.297 | |||
| 2010 | 0.249 | |||
| 2011 | 0.324 | |||
| Average | 0.290 | 0.296 | 97.9% | |
Carl Crawford (7 yrs, $142,000,000)
| Season | Avg. | Career | % Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 2008 | 0.273 | |||
| 2009 | 0.305 | |||
| 2010 | 0.307 | |||
| Average | 0.295 | 0.293 | 100.7% | |
Outside of Holliday the players were generally batting their career averages heading into the big contracts. Holliday has now become a legitimate contract to model Hamilton's numbers against. He was 30 years old and batting 108% of his career average at that time of his
signing. It's probable to assume that Holliday received at least 1 extra year on his deal in light of his "prime" standing, so we'll do the same for Hamilton.
Let's revisit our previously determined term averages to populate an estimated contract based on Batting Average for Josh Hamilton:
Let's revisit our previously determined term averages to populate an estimated contract based on Batting Average for Josh Hamilton:
| Years | Avg. Salary | 3 yr B.A. Adj. | Adj. Salary | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | $18,867,725 | 8% | $20,377,135 | $122,262,810 |
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS)
Hamilton's .929 career OPS places him in proximity with Ryan Braun (.937), Miguel Cabrera (.947), Prince Fielder (.928), and Matt Holliday (.925). Using a straight linear regression on the contracts signed by these four players, and the following information can be derived:
| Player | Length | Value | Avg. Salary | Age | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Braun | 5 | $105,000,000 | $21,000,000 | 28 |
 |
Cabrera | 8 | $152,300,000 | $19,037,5000 | 27 |
|
Holliday | 7 | $120,000,000 | $17,142,857 | 30 |
 |
Fielder | 9 | $214,000,000 | $23,777,778 | 27 |
| Averages | 7.25 | $147,825,000 | $20,389,655 | 28 | |
Again, let's just the contracts to reflect the players as if they were signing the contract at Josh Hamilton's age, 31. We'll derive a linear regression of the adjusted years and their corresponding adjusted values to give us a projected average salary to work with.
| Player | Length | Avg. Salary | Adjusted Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Braun | 2 | $21,000,000 | $42,000,000 |
|
Cabrera | 5 | $19,037,500 | $95,187,500 |
|
Holliday | 6 | $17,142,857 | $102,857,142 |
|
Fielder | 5 | $23,777,778 | $118,888,890 |
| Linear Regression Projected Salary | $19,683,609 | |||
Now let's take into account Hamilton's OPS over just the past 3 years (2010-present), in comparison to his career .929 OPS to provide a recent snapshot of his performance.
Josh Hamilton
| Season | OPS | Career | % Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 2010 | 1.044 | |||
| 2011 | 0.882 | |||
| 2012 | 1.175 | |||
| Average | 1.034 | 0.929 | 111% | |
We'll do the same with our variable players comparing the differentiation between the player's OPS 3 years prior to signing with their career OPS.
Ryan Braun (5 yrs, $105,000,000)
Matt Holliday (7 yrs, $120,000,000)
Miguel Cabrera (8 yrs, $152,300,000)
Prince Fielder (9 yrs, $214,000,000)
| Season | OPS | Career | % Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 2008 | 0.888 | |||
| 2009 | 0.937 | |||
| 2010 | 0.866 | |||
| Average | 0.897 | 0.937 | 95.7% | |
Matt Holliday (7 yrs, $120,000,000)
| Season | OPS | Career | % Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 2007 | 1.012 | |||
| 2008 | 0.947 | |||
| 2009 | 0.921 | |||
| Average | 0.960 | 0.925 | 103.7% | |
Miguel Cabrera (8 yrs, $152,300,000)
| Season | OPS | Career | % Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 2005 | 0.947 | |||
| 2006 | 0.998 | |||
| 2007 | 0.965 | |||
| Average | 0.970 | 0.947 | 102% | |
Prince Fielder (9 yrs, $214,000,000)
| Season | OPS | Career | % Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 20009 | 1.014 | |||
| 2010 | 0.871 | |||
| 2011 | 0.981 | |||
| Average | 0.955 | 0.928 | 102% | |
Results
Length of the Contract
The contracts used as variable in this study (Braun, Kemp, Holliday, Fielder, Cabrera, Crawford) carry an average length of 7.33. Additionally, these contracts are taking the athletes to an average age of 36. With Hamilton being 31, we'll split the difference and predict a 6 year contract.
Value of the Contract
The predicted value of the contract is generated based on the Linear-Regressed Salaries, the Percent Difference for each Statistic, and the previously determined length.
The contracts used as variable in this study (Braun, Kemp, Holliday, Fielder, Cabrera, Crawford) carry an average length of 7.33. Additionally, these contracts are taking the athletes to an average age of 36. With Hamilton being 31, we'll split the difference and predict a 6 year contract.
Value of the Contract
The predicted value of the contract is generated based on the Linear-Regressed Salaries, the Percent Difference for each Statistic, and the previously determined length.
Value Based on Batting Average
| Average Salary | % Difference | Length | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| $18,867,725 | 0.08 | 6 | $122,262,810 |
Value Based on OPS
| Average Salary | % Difference | Length | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| $19,683,609 | 0.11 | 6 | $131,092,830 |
Spotrac's Prediction: 6 years, $126,677,820
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