Understanding Peyton Manning’s Contract Restructure

May 20th, 2013

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With a bit of confusion in the past week over some unexpected news from Denver that Peyton Manning had restructured his deal, we wanted to breakdown the details of exactly what happened, as has been reported by Mike Florio at ProFootballTalk.

Prior to the restructure, Manning had a VERY basic contract of just large base salaries:

 

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Manning’s Contract Breakdown Prior to Restructure

 

With the restructure, Manning has received a $10 million salary advance, that draws $5 million each from 2013 and 2014. This $10 million is converted into an OATSB (Other Amount Treated as Signing Bonus), that pro-rates over the remaining four years of the contract, at $2.5 million per year. The restructured contract now breaks down like such:

 

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Manning’s Restructured Contract Breakdown

 

So while it’s correct in saying that financially speaking Manning’s contract and compensation has not changed, from a salary cap standpoint, the Broncos have actually saved $2.5M in cap space for 2013 and 2014.

Additionally, the implementation of a OATSB now adds “dead money” to the 4 remaining years of the deal, something the original deal didn’t include. Note: Dead money is money the team will accumulate against their salary cap by releasing the player.

The move drops Peyton’s 2013 cap hit to $17.5M, still the top figure on the Broncos (Champ Bailey, $11M), and the 3rd highest among active quarterbacks this year.

 

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2013 NFL Preseason Fantasy Value Players

May 7th, 2013

In light of the recently published “Fantasy Preseason Top 25” list by the National Football Post, we’ll take a look at the best values early on heading into the 2013 NFL season.

 

Value NFP Player 2013 Cap Hit
#1 #7 Alfred Morris, RB, Washington Redskins $510,775
#2 #5 Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers $1,542,620
#3 #12 Stevan Ridley, RB, New England Patriots $805,500
#4 #22 Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos $2,430,250
#5 #10 Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys $2,926,000


Other notable value players:

 

Quarterbacks

Quickly becoming one of the deepest fantasy positions available, the young quarterback is
not only multi-faceted for extra fantasy points, but cost efficient.

Russell Wilson, SEA – $681,085
Colin Kaepernick, SF – $1,397,532
Andy Dalton, CIN – $1,422,054

 

Running Backs

The most de-valued position in the league from a contract standpoint doesn’t exactly mean you can go with a “cheap” RB in the fantasy draws. The likes of AP, Foster, Rice, and Spiller are costly point-getters.

Daryl Richardson, STL – $491,474
Demarco Murray, DAL – $810,813
Vick Ballard, IND – $516,140

 


Wide Receivers

In a passing-driven league, major point-earning WRs are a commodity. The dropoff of elite receivers should end around the 8th or 9th rounds, but these receivers are late-round steals.

Randall Cobb, GB – $875,297
Torrey Smith, BAL – $924,224
Mike Williams, TB – $1,534,562

 


Tight Ends

Quickly becoming one of the most expensive point-positions in the league, the tight end is a vital selection in most fantasy drafts. These players should provide major bang for little buck.

Jimmy Graham, NO – $1,489,285
Brandon Myers, NYG – $1,125,000
Kyle Rudolph, MIN – $1,262,687

 

View the full list of Top 2013 Cap Hits

 

 

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Projecting a New Jairus Byrd Contract

May 6th, 2013

USATSI_5828454_160074578_lowresAfter making arguably the biggest noise in this year’s NFL Draft by selecting QB E.J. Manual with the 16th overall pick, the Buffalo Bills next logical order of business moves to the negotiating table in hopes of extending their young and talented safety Jairus Byrd.

With recent deals to new Buccaneers safety Dashon Goldson and a sizeable deal for Michael Griffin in Tennessee last offseason, there’s a fairly sketched out barometer to base negotiation points with. We’ll assess Byrd into our standard forecast tool – breaking down contracts of a selected set of variables safeties, and then comparing these players statistically to Byrd in the years leading up to their respective contract signings. The result will provide us with a projected value for Jairus Byrd‘s likely extension (or free agent contract).

Click here to view the official prediction

 

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2013 NFL Draft Contract Projections

April 26th, 2013

As the 2013 NFL kicks off and continues on, our premium team has taken some time to do the heavy math lifting and formulate a list of projections for each drafted player’s eventual rookie contract.

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The numbers include signing bonuses from the 2012 1st round picks (projected to be identical for 2013). By pro-rating each signing bonus over a 4 year span, and factoring in the minimum base salary for 2013 ($405,000) we’re able to project the 2013 cap figure. From there, we multiply a 25.4% allocation into this cap figure to find that particular players “base salary increase number”. This figure is added each year to provide is with our total projected contract value.

View the complete report, and bookmark it as we’ll be updating it as the draft picks pour in.

 

 

 

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Forecasting Darrelle Revis’ New Contract

April 21st, 2013

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It looks like the months (if not years) of rumors are finally coming to fruition in NY, as reports are stating that the NY Jets have indeed agreed on a trade to send their embattled star cornerback Darrelle Revis to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The reports are also telling us that a new deal is the works for Revis and the Bucs – at what might average out to $14M per year.

This news sparked our NFL Premium team to run Revis through the forecasting tool and pull out a contract based on his age, and statisticial value against other top defensive backs on the NFL. We’ll use Revis’ statistics from 2010-2011 in order to gauge a better snapshot of his performance without his major 2012 injury impeding our data. The majority of our variable players will be assessed in these years as well, having signed their extensions prior to the 2012 season

Read the full: Darrelle Revis Contract Prediction

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NFL Teams: Strength of Schedule vs. Salary Cap

April 19th, 2013

With the release of the 2013 NFL schedule Thursday night also come immediate metrics surrounding each team’s “strength of schedule” heading into the new season. The strength of schedule percentage is calculated by taking the win-loss records from all opponents on a team’s 2013 schedule. The report below outlines how each NFL team’s strength of schedule figure and 2013 team salary cap figure compare.

 

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Launch the interactive version of this graph

 View the Real-Time NFL Team Cap Tracker

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Predicting Jimmy Graham’s Next Contract

April 18th, 2013

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It’s been reported that Saints tight end Jimmy Graham is not only ready for a new deal, but he’d like to be considered in line with Wide Receivers – and compensated as such. Entering the final year of his rookie deal, the Saints will most certainly be looking to finalize an extension with Graham in the coming months.

 

Our premium team has developed a report that combines analysis of Graham against both Tight Ends and Wide Receivers comparable in Age, Size, Statistics. The result is Spotrac’s official prediction for his next NFL Contract.

 

The Jimmy Graham Contract Prediction

 

 

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The Price of Charles Woodson

April 11th, 2013

As the NFL offseason begins to round into form, it becomes clearer which veteran players might not be “sure-things” to continue their careers into the following season. One of the more prominent names still available is long-time Packers defensive back Charles Woodson. Recent reports mention that Woodson has just one team visit this offseason (49ers), and little to no interest around the league at this time, claiming that teams are qualifying him as “too old” to take a financial risk on.

 

A quick glance at our Spotrac Premium data grids shows that age 33 appears to be the dropout point for defensive backs (Cornerbacks/Safeties) in the current NFL. We’ll evaluate players who are currently under contract for 2013 in comparison to Charles Woodson.

 


Charles Woodson (36 years old, Free Agent)

Visited with San Francisco 49ers, little to no other interest.

2010-2012 Breakdown

  • 38 Games
  • 10 interceptions
  • 164 Tackles
  • 7 Forced Fumbles
  • $30,000,000 earned

 


Terence Newman (34 years old, Cincinnati Bengals)

Signed a 2 year $5 million contract with the Bengals through 2014.

2010-2012 Breakdown

  • 45 Games
  • 11 interceptions
  • 175 Tackles
  • 1 Forced Fumble
  • $17,825,000 earned

 


Champ Bailey (34 years old, Denver Broncos)

Signed a 4 year $43 million contract with Denver through 2014

2010-2012 Breakdown

  • 44 Games
  • 6 interceptions
  • 137 Tackles
  • 1 Forced Fumble
  • $27,500,000 earned

 


Adrian Wilson (33 years old, New England Patriots)

Signed a 3 year $5 million contract with Patriots through 2015.

2010-2012 Breakdown

  • 47 Games
  • 4 interceptions
  • 163 Tackles
  • 2 Forced Fumbles
  • $15,750,000 earned

 


Ed Reed (34 years old, Houston Texans)

Signed a 3 year $15 million contract with Texans through 2015.

2010-2012 Breakdown

  • 42 Games
  • 15 interceptions
  • 126 Tackles
  • 2 Forced Fumbles
  • $23,600,000 earned

 


Ryan Clark (33 years old, Pittsburgh Steelers)

Signed a 4 year $14 million contract with Steelers through 2013.

2010-2012 Breakdown

  • 47 Games
  • 5 interceptions
  • 90 Tackles
  • 2 Forced Fumbles
  • $10,000,000 earned

 

It’s clear when stacking up Woodson against his younger colleagues that statistically he’s still on par – if not still better. The glaring difference is the reduction in games played, most notable because of his season-ending injury in 2012. A durability question mark is the heaviest “con” when negotiating a contract in the later years, and surely it’s scared away many teams who might otherwise have serious interest.

 

It’s also very interesting to note that the players mentioned here have contracts that expire prior to their turning 36 years of age. It appears that 35 is the true cutoff point when negotiating a deal a veteran defensive back.

 

The lone exception to the rule is Ed Reed, who was granted a third year in his new deal with the Houston Texans. If he makes it into the 2015 season, he’ll earn a fair $5 million base salary as a 36 year old defensive back. This figure appears to be the only active comparison for Woodson and his camp to negotiate from – and a good fit – as both Woodson and Reed bring leadership, Super Bowls, and other intangibles to the table along with their on-field skill.

 

Teams will look to reevaluate their rosters and overall cap space once the draft concludes, and it’s likely that Woodson will be in plenty of those discussions. We think a 1 year deal close to $5M in total value, incentivized based on Games Played makes perfect sense for the valued veteran.

View the Top Average Salaries in the NFL 

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2013 Likely Wide Receiver Extensions

April 8th, 2013

Our second edition of Likely Extensions focuses on the Wide Receivers. Truth be told, the list of expiring receiver contracts for 2013 isn’t anything to write home about, so most of these players will be signed through 2014. In a cap-crunched league now, teams who need space will “restructure” current deals into extensions in order to save space now. For some of these receivers, that’s exactly what will happen. NOTE: Under the terms of the new CBA, players in a rookie contract cannot be restructured/extended until after their third full year.

 

Victor Cruz (WR, Giants)

uspw_6835792 (1)Signed to a 1st-round tender for 2013 ($2.879M), and the recent long-term deal for Mike Wallace (MIA), Cruz has become the hot commodity in a thin WR market currently. The speedy wideout has 2,700 yards and 19 TDs in his past two seasons with the Giants, and can become a #1 weapon on just about any roster in the league.

 

SPECIAL:  Spotrac Premium Predicts the Victor Cruz Extension


Brandon Marshall (WR, Bears)

uspw_6875610After mediocre exposure for above-average production in his short time with the Dolphins, Marshall has once again soared to the top of the receiver charts reunited with QB Jay Cutler in Chicago. His 5 year $44.7M deal is set to expire after the 2014 season, when he turns 31 years old. Cutler himself is entering the final year of his deal with the Bears, and many think the extension of Cutler and Marshall will happen fairly close together, as the two have proven long-term success together.

He’ll be the top veteran wide receiver available in the 2014 free agent market if he gets that far

 

Julio Jones (WR, Falcons)

uspw_6953648The Falcons went all in at the 2011 draft to trade up and select Jones, and he hasn’t disappointed. The tall, strong, speedy receiver has had back to back elite years to start his career, and should continue to succeed in in Atlanta’s smart, veteran offense. His 4 year $16M rookie contract expires in 2014, the same year fellow receiver Roddy White’s 6 year $42M deal ends. White will be 33 at the close of his contract, an age that probably won’t warrant another long-term deal from Atlanta.

While cap hits of $4.4M and $5.1M for Jones in the next two years aren’t alarming, he’ll be vastly underpaid for his performance thus far. It will make good business sense for all parties to extend the young wideout and spread money long-term to keep his cap reasonable through his prime years. Per the CBA, he’ll have to p lay out 2013 before talking extension, but it’s safe to assume it’s coming.

SPECIAL: Spotrac Premium Predicts the Julio Jones Extension

 

A.J. Green (WR, Bengals)

uspw_6810286Not unlike Victor Cruz, Green has come out of the gate shining in his early years. The Bengals wideout has garnered 2,400 yards and 18 TDs in the first two seasons of his 4 year $19.6M deal. With cap figures of $5.3M and $6.2M in the next two seasons, and no other major team receiver expenditures, the time to extend Green in Cincinnati will be sooner than later.

The 2014 free agent market is full of young receivers who will be due large paychecks, and the Bengals have taken major strides in building a winning franchise around their youth. So it’s most likely that Green and the Bengals find a happy medium to keep him happy and in town. Like Jones, the CBA prohibits Green from an extension until after the 2013 season, but barring serious injury, it wont take long after.

 

Dez Bryant (WR, Cowboys)

uspw_6813204A slow start to his career has been followed up with electric seasons in Dallas for Dez Bryant. The embattled wideout has two years remaining on his 5 year $11.8M rookie contract, and low cap figures of $2.9M and $3.1M the next two seasons.

He’ll earn just $5.3M in cash over those two seasons though – a figure that will probably spark some discussions from his agent and the Cowboys. A strong 2013 campaign will most certainly place Bryant in financial company with A.J. Green and Julio Jones.

 

See Also: 2013 Likely Quarterback Extensions

Top NFL 2013 Cap Hits

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2013 Likely Quarterback Extensions

March 25th, 2013

With the free agency season dying down and the 2013 draft right around the corner, it’s a fitting time to assess rosters and point out expiring contracts (both rookies and veterans) who will be targeted for extensions in the coming months. Our first edition takes a look at quarterbacks set to cash in.

Aaron Rodgers (QB, Packers)

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The shadow of Brett Favre has long-passed in Green Bay, with the uncanny immediate rise to stardom from their next-in-line quarterback. Rodgers wins with flare, with big stats, and with sophistication. His ability to be mobile when necessary sets him apart from the likes of a Brady or a Manning(s), and his out-of-pocket accuracy is second to none. His 6 year $63.52M deal with the Packers is set to end after the 2014 season.

His cap hits of $9.75M (8.72% of Packers 2013 cap) and $11M (13% of Packers 2014 cap) aren’t major hazards to the team’s overall salary cap, so extending Rodgers is geared more toward paying a proven star more cash now, and locking him in for nearly the remainders of his career. Our premium team has formulated a prediction for Aaron Rodgers’ next deal in Green Bay.

 

Matt Ryan (QB, Falcons)

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The Falcons won the lottery with the chance to take Ryan #1 overall in 2008, and their franchise hasn’t looked back since. He’s improved statistically in every season, and not coincidentally so have the wins and postseason runs in Atlanta. He enters the final year of his 6 year $67.5M rookie contract in 2013, but most likely will put pen to a long-term extension before the start of the season.

His current $11.25M avg/year ranks 13th among quarterbacks in 2013, but many feel $18M is a more worthy number, an increase that would place him 3rd – just above the number Tony Romo just agreed to.
Spotrac Premium analyzes a prediction for Ryan’s long-term extension.

 

Matthew Stafford (QB, Lions)

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The Lions have had a brutal offseason having to drop veterans, and restructure/chop off a half dozen contracts just to place themselves under the salary cap and in a position to build back up. Many feel they’ve done so VERY well, but one task still remains.

Stafford’s 6 year $73.5M rookie contract has two years remaining on it, but holds cap figures of $20.82M in 2013, and $19.32M in 2014. Even the elite quarterbacks are finding these numbers too rich for team’s to swallow. Add in Stafford’s stretch of injuries and poor play, and the cap hits are way too much to handle for the Lions.

Unfortunately the task at hand isn’t as easy as “adding a few more years” to spread some of this money out. With major salary restructures in both 2011 and 2012, Stafford carries $19.36M in dead money, or money that must remain against his cap, regardless of a new deal. But with base salaries of $12.5M and $11M in the next two season, an extension to reduce those alone is more than worth the effort.

 

Jay Cutler (QB, Bears)

uspw_6889572An up and down career seems to have come full circle for Cutler in Chicago – especially with last year’s acquisition of WR Brandon Marshall. The Bears are an offense on the rise heading into 2013, barring unfortunate but all-too-common injuries. Cutler will be 30 by the time the season rolls around, an age that concerns teams only in terms of the length of a new contract. His $10.3M cap figure for 2013 counts only 8.3% against the Bears total cap, so from a business stand-point he’s no threat, but his $5.86M avg/year ranks him just 19th among quarterbacks.

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