Week 8 Best-Value Teams
|4||Kansas City Chiefs||6.66|
Many thought this week’s Thursday night matchup between the divisional leading Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers would be the exception to the time slot’s year-long "jinx". Instead, the Broncos rolled over the Chargers with relative ease, and find themselves atop our list of the league’s best value for Week 8.
They’re followed up by the Dallas Cowboys, who maintain their #2 slot while taking a step back in the standings – proving their cheap talent is still producing at a high enough level to balance out a bad game from veterans.
The Vikings rise from the 5th to 3rd position this week after an ungly win in Tampa Bay. With just $30M cap dollars allocated to their starting offense, any sort of production leads to value in Minnesota.
The Chiefs and Browns find themselves near the top of our value rankings for the first time this season, rounding out the Top 5 for week 8.
Week 8 Worst-Value Teams
|32||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||-12.69|
|31||San Diego Chargers||-10.59|
|30||Green Bay Packers||-8.63|
|28||St. Louis Rams||-6.15|
The Buccaneers appear well-aware of their lack of value, trading two fairly integral pieces of their starting defense prior to last night’s deadline. Tampa Bay has plenty of bloated cap figures in positions with little production through half of 2014, and will likely be in line for big changes this offseason.
When things go bad for the Chargers on the field, their value falls off a cliff, thanks in large part to negative values for QB Philip Rivers, and TE Antonio Gates this week. Cumulatively, the Chargers remain a Top 10 Best Value team for the 2014 season, despite the major step back in week 8.
Much the same can be said for the Packers, who find themselves near the bottom in week 8 rankings, but 12th in our cumulative season list. A date with the Chicago Bears this weekend could be just what the doctor ordered to get them back into the "good value" fold in week 9.
Cincinnati finds themselves in our bottom 5 despite pulling out a victory in week 8. The Bengals’ high-paid defensive line posted negative values across the board against the Ravens, contributing to their slide down our rankings. Cincinnati remains 15th on the overall team value list for 2014.
The St. Louis Rams will have $56M allocated to their ENTIRE Week 9 starting lineup, and $43M allocated to thier Reserve/Injured list. A recipe for disaster just half way through the year.
Week 8 Advanced-Stat Best-Value Team
This week’s edition of the All-Value team carries a combined cap figure of just $22,138,568. The Ravens and Broncos lead the way, each with three players in this week’s list.
How Do We Calculate True Value?
In order to calculate the True Value Statistic, we first collect the weekly Pro Football Focus rating for each starting player in the NFL. From there we work positionally, finding the Average PFF rating for all players in a particular position for that week. We also collect the Standard Deviation for this data set. Subsequently, we find the Average, and Standard Deviation of the 2014 Cap Figure for all players in a particular position. To normalize this data and prep for calculation, we then find the Z-Score of our Statistical Rating, and the Z-Score of our Financial Rating. These two Z-Scores are then added to produce a player’s current TVS.
Ryan Tannehill’s Week 1 PFF rating was 3.2
The average PFF rating of all Week 1 QBs is -0.29
The standard deviation of all Week 1 QBs is 2.78
To find the z-score, we calculate (3.2 – (-.29)) / 2.78 = 1.25
Ryan Tannehill’s 2014 cap figure is $3,455,046
The average 2014 cap figure of all Week 1 QBs is $9,174,096
The standard deviation of all Week 1 QBs is $7,097,100
To find the z-score, we calculate (9,174,096 – 3,455,046)/7,097,100 = .805
Tannehill’s Week 1 TVS = 2.05